21p - how does it work?

[SolarCity]

Okay, as it seems we are no further ahead than we were 24 hours ago in terms of the confirmed FIT rate, I'd like to ask others how they are making 21p work.

I can't get 21p to work on anything but a SW-SE facing perfect install.

If the install drops below 3kWp or too far off SW then the install just isn't worth it.

Tricky scaffold - not worth it.

Anything but cheap Chinese - not worth it.

Slate roofs (correctly installed) - not worth it.

Electricity use less than 50% - not worth it.


Are people installing 4kWp systems for 6.5k or something around that?

I honestly can't see how people are doing it. What about all the days spent surveying and quoting? How do you make it pay?


I've said it before and I'll say it again - 21p is FAR too low. Probably as much as 10p too low.

Yes, the 'C' rating is the bigger issue but I honestly don't think even the DECC are stupid enough to implement that.

 

[Markc]

I feel 21p can work but not within the timescale of the 43p rate. It has to be a consumers choice as to "if it is worth it" IMO. A system will cost what a system will cost. I have a confirmed Sanyo ground mount with a SAP return of 20 years going ahead! IMO it isn't worth it but the client has done his sums and is happy to proceed even with my own opinion on it. I've also lost works because I was not prepared to tell a client our system WILL pay back in four years at 43p! Its a consumer choice and with an honest appraisal the right products and options 21p will work. Those who are our there installing for nothing will not be about for long no matter what they claim. A savvy consumer will know this also.

As I have said before its the EPC that's the bigger issue and I can't see anything stating this is even under discussion. I think when rather than if this comes in then that's the time we will see the market place change.

 

[SolarCity]

I have a confirmed Sanyo ground mount with a SAP return of 20 years going ahead!

20 years?! Wow! Started a ground mount install yesterday on a 15 year payback with 100% energy use. The client is very, very wealthy and would have it installed at any cost and for any return.

A days work for 3 men just to pull the 100m of 25mm 3 core armoured in through a duct. - #knackered

These people are not typical of the market though and they certainly aren't enough to keep us going.

 

[SRE]

I think the hardest bit is trying to get your head the longer timescales. This time last year our customers were buying on a promise of 10 -12 year payback for a decent orientation and 12 - 14 for one that isn't so good. We're offering similar deals now as a result of the price drops and our customers (not that we have many yet) are quite happy with the options.

We've now got a different market, our punters haven't got as much money but can now afford solar and are considering 5 - 7% roi acceptable. We're aiming for Suntech/Power One @ 9k for 4kwp, a little more for slate and Sanyo are still looking like an option for smaller roofs in some circumstances.

Yes, I'd like to make the same money as last year but that's not going to happen. I can still make more doing this than general electrical work.

We've had to sort out our own approach to selling rather than our customers. They seem to be appreciating the lower initial commitment and are prepared to take a lower return as a result.

Only our experience .....

 

[MorganPVI]

A 3.84 system S or SW/SE priced at 9k gives an average 10% return and a 10yr payoff, thats a good deal in my humble opinion. It is a little harsh for people with smaller or badly facing roofs, but then perhaps electric payers should only subsdize viable projects?

 

[TedM]

I've just been pointed to a DECC document that shows that they are now including the electricity savings from years 25 to 35 in their tariff payback calculations. They also take the generation figure as 850 kWh/kWp flat over the system's entire life which is greatly to their advantage.

http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/...-explanation-rate-return-calc-domestic-pv.pdf

I'm pretty sure that this is a change from the way the rates were calculated back in 2010 for the commencement of the scheme.

They also only include £70 per year operating costs, which I don't think really covers the possible inverter replacement costs, panel cleaning and roof checks that would be required over the 35 year life of a system. They also us a pretty high 15.4p for electricity costs.

This is how they get to 21p.

 

[MorganPVI]

9.9% RPI over 2 years, the UK is economically ducked.

Given the reductions in inverter cost, in 12 years i'm sure you can pick up a replacement for half of todays price. £10 a year for the window cleaner to wipe the panels, £150 every 10 years for the safety inspection. £700 every 10 years for routine maintence seems about right.

Fully agree sneaking in the electric savings and additional 10years of leccy is juts padding the figures to justify the lowered tariff.