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TedM
Last Wednesday Barker tweeted that his master plan will create 22GW of PV installed by 2020. Is it feasible?
Table 14 in DECC’s FiT consultation 2A Impact Assessment shows the predicted cumulative installed capacity spread across the next 5 years, as the first stage to get to 22GW, as being:
2011/12 1,300 MW
2012/13 1,800 MW
2013/14 2,700 MW
2014/15 4,300 MW
and
2020/21 22,000 MW
The first comment to make is that the 22GW ‘target’ is actually for 31st March 2021 rather than 2020.
Extrapolating the missing years to 2021, using a simple straight-line method to extend 4.3 GW to 22GW, gives the following:
2015/16 7,250 MW
2016/17 10,200 MW
2017/18 13,150 MW
2018/19 16,100 MW
2019/20 19,050 MW
2020/21 22,000 MW
At the current average size for installed PV systems of 3.5kW would require nearly 6 million systems to be installed between 1st April 2012 and 31st March 2021 to achieve 22 GW.
Between 1st April 2015 and 31st March 2021 just under 850,000 PV installs will be required each year. That’s almost four times the number that have been installed in the first two years of FiTs.
Using DECCs predicted figures (from the much criticised Parsons Brinckerhoff report ‘medium’ data – Tables A3 fixed and A4 marginal) for what PV should cost over the coming years (again basing this on average size of 3.5kW per installation) gives the following investment required by UK households:
2012/13 500 MW = £0.9 billion
2013/14 900 MW = £1.5 billion
2014/15 1,600 MW = £2.5 billion
2015/16 2,950 MW = £4.3 billion
2016/17 2,950 MW = £4.0 billion
2017/18 2,950 MW = £3.8 billion
2018/19 2,950 MW = £3.5 billion
2019/20 2,950 MW = £3.3 billion
2020/21 2,950 MW = £3.2 billion
This totals £27 billion. I wonder where that amount of cash is going to come from over the next 9 years.
The first checkable milestone requires that a total of 1,300 MW be installed by the end of this March.
Using the same data gives the following predicted retail prices for installed 3.5 kW systems over the period:
2011/12 £9,873
2012/13 £6,626
2013/14 £6,020
2014/15 £5,491
2015/16 £5,107
2016/17 £4,767
2017/18 £4,456
2018/19 £4,170
2019/20 £3,905
2020/21 £3,776
Table 14 in DECC’s FiT consultation 2A Impact Assessment shows the predicted cumulative installed capacity spread across the next 5 years, as the first stage to get to 22GW, as being:
2011/12 1,300 MW
2012/13 1,800 MW
2013/14 2,700 MW
2014/15 4,300 MW
and
2020/21 22,000 MW
The first comment to make is that the 22GW ‘target’ is actually for 31st March 2021 rather than 2020.
Extrapolating the missing years to 2021, using a simple straight-line method to extend 4.3 GW to 22GW, gives the following:
2015/16 7,250 MW
2016/17 10,200 MW
2017/18 13,150 MW
2018/19 16,100 MW
2019/20 19,050 MW
2020/21 22,000 MW
At the current average size for installed PV systems of 3.5kW would require nearly 6 million systems to be installed between 1st April 2012 and 31st March 2021 to achieve 22 GW.
Between 1st April 2015 and 31st March 2021 just under 850,000 PV installs will be required each year. That’s almost four times the number that have been installed in the first two years of FiTs.
Using DECCs predicted figures (from the much criticised Parsons Brinckerhoff report ‘medium’ data – Tables A3 fixed and A4 marginal) for what PV should cost over the coming years (again basing this on average size of 3.5kW per installation) gives the following investment required by UK households:
2012/13 500 MW = £0.9 billion
2013/14 900 MW = £1.5 billion
2014/15 1,600 MW = £2.5 billion
2015/16 2,950 MW = £4.3 billion
2016/17 2,950 MW = £4.0 billion
2017/18 2,950 MW = £3.8 billion
2018/19 2,950 MW = £3.5 billion
2019/20 2,950 MW = £3.3 billion
2020/21 2,950 MW = £3.2 billion
This totals £27 billion. I wonder where that amount of cash is going to come from over the next 9 years.
The first checkable milestone requires that a total of 1,300 MW be installed by the end of this March.
Using the same data gives the following predicted retail prices for installed 3.5 kW systems over the period:
2011/12 £9,873
2012/13 £6,626
2013/14 £6,020
2014/15 £5,491
2015/16 £5,107
2016/17 £4,767
2017/18 £4,456
2018/19 £4,170
2019/20 £3,905
2020/21 £3,776
