CO2 concentrations break through the 400ppm barrier for first time in 800,000 years

[SolarCity]

Re: CO2 concentrations break through the 400ppm barrier for first time in 800,000 yea

I prefer Sean Lock's take on recycling & our countrys efforts- " like turning up to an earthquake with a dustpan & brush".

Surely its a better idea that the 5 billion (or so) in india, china, US , did their bit? I think then me washing out marmite jars will become fairly insignificant!!!

Maybe so. But if Britain does turn up with its dustpan and brush then at least we can look around and ask why India, China and US aren't doing the same.

 

[dougalthedog]

Re: CO2 concentrations break through the 400ppm barrier for first time in 800,000 yea

Does anyone have any hard figures on how much carbon goes into the manufacture / delivery to the UK of any specific solar panel / inverter? It would be interesting to get some accurate figures for the embodied carbon of a typical 4kW install - presumably we could work out our own carbon footprint for the installation part.

I've heard figures banded about for the carbon payback of solar of between 2 & 20 years but nobody seems to be able to back it up with any figures!

 

[sambotc]

Re: CO2 concentrations break through the 400ppm barrier for first time in 800,000 yea

I'm sure i've read the the UK accounts for 0.6% of the worlds carbon emissions? So the dustpan and brush statement is very true. That said we should be more interested in future proofing ourselves even if the carbon saving doesn't add up, we are running out of fuel and having to go to ridiculous and dangerous places to extract it now. Also being less reliant on big energy companies comes high up on the list in my opinion.

 

[SolarCity]

Re: CO2 concentrations break through the 400ppm barrier for first time in 800,000 yea

About 11 years ago a company in Runcorn called Silent Power closed down they had developed quite advanced traction batteries at the time that were about to come to market and the US government were going to bring in legislation which would have helped but lobbying by the oil companies stopped this happening and the batteries went into storage and the manufacturing and development plant was closed otherwise we may have had battery powered vehicles years ago

Lobbying by oil companies in which country? Surely there is more to it than "This would stop BP selling so much oil........?"

But then does our planet and even the solar system it is in have a finite life and is this just part of a cycle that lasts X thousand or million years before it implodes and starts all over again to replenish itself

Life has been on this planet for 2 billion years. Modern man has been on this planet for around 100-250 thousand years - a blink of the eye in evolutionary terms. Evidence suggests that we are having a huge impact on the Earth's environment and we have only been burning fossil fuels at a large scale for the last 200 or so years.

It may well be the case that this global warming would be occurring anyway and that our activity is having zero impact. Even so, surely when you consider what is at stake it would make sense to act as if we ARE causing this problem and that we CAN solve it. Considering what it at stake I am truly staggered that anyone can take the contrary view.

 

[MorganPVI]

Re: CO2 concentrations break through the 400ppm barrier for first time in 800,000 yea

Some of the denial in this thread is worthy of an Egyptian, ( Da Nile (river) as some posters may not have the inteligence to make the connection)

I'm sorry to say that I hold ZERO hope of reducing carbon emmissions without the total collapse of civilization as we know it. The way in which the world currently operates needs cheap energy to run GDP, without cheap oil there is no growth and therefore no GDP - nothing less than the total collapse of the world as we know it will do it, unless of course the USA, China and India slash emmisions (they will not because emmisions = GDP)

Sadly the way the world is set up requires cheap energy, no rational leadership would risk their place in the world order by placing the current and future posperity of their people before the needs of the Earth.

As a final note - any person thinking that the rise in C02 is a natural cycle MUST also think that the Sun orbits the Earth.
</rant>

 

[sambotc]

Re: CO2 concentrations break through the 400ppm barrier for first time in 800,000 yea

On a side note, what caused co2 emissions to rise above 400ppm 800,000 years ago?

 

[Gavin A]

Re: CO2 concentrations break through the 400ppm barrier for first time in 800,000 yea

On a side note, what caused co2 emissions to rise above 400ppm 800,000 years ago?

I could be wrong, but I think that's simply the length of the atmospheric CO2 record we've got at the minute, so should really be read as being higher than they've been at any point that we have data for, which is a minimum of 800,000 years.

Or to put it another way, they've definitely not been this high at any point that either Neanderthals or Homo-Sapiens have been inhabiting the planet.

 

[Gavin A]

Re: CO2 concentrations break through the 400ppm barrier for first time in 800,000 yea

It may well be the case that this global warming would be occurring anyway and that our activity is having zero impact.

no, it can't be that. All possible natural causes of the warming have been identified and categorically ruled out as being responsible for the level of warming we've experienced.

This is not to say that the natural factors don't have an impact, they definitely do, but they definitely are not the cause of the long term warming trend over the last 40 years.

The solar cycle, and probably the oceanic cycles did however combined with the impact of increasing greenhouse gasses and reduced particulates in the atmosphere in the 90's to result in a steeper rise through that decade than would otherwise have been the case, followed by a slow down in the rate of warming in the last decade.

Or in other words, natural factors are responsible for much of the variation in the rate of increase, but the increased greenhouse gases are responsible for the overall warming trend. WIthout these increased greenhouse gas concentrations (and other human factors) we'd actually have experienced a minor long term reduction in global temperatures over the last 40 years, due to the reduction in solar output the satellites have been measuring over that period.

The graph below is a composite graph of the satellite data we have for the Total Solar Irradiance figures from the top of the atmosphere since 1980. It's a little hard to make out as it's a bit small, but you should be able to see the roughly 10-12 year sunspot cycle in there, with peaks around 1980, 1990, 2000, and that there's been a slightly bigger reduction in output in the trough over the last 10 years, and we're only just heading towards the peak again now. You may be also able to see a slight downward trend overall in the figures, ie both the peaks and the troughs get slightly lower between 1980 and now.

 

[Gavin A]

Re: CO2 concentrations break through the 400ppm barrier for first time in 800,000 yea

Estimates of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) prior to the satellite record are less reliable, but there have been reasonable records kept of the sunspot cycle by astronomers for 400 years or so, which gives a good indication of the likely variation in TSI.

These records do show a good correlation with warming and cooling periods during that time frame, and is probably the major cause of the warming in the first half of the 20th century, as well as the brief cooling period around 1950-70 (combined with increased sulphate levels in the atsmosphere that reflect the sun's heat away from the earth).

What they can't do is account for the warming over the last 30 years.




http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/data/tsi_data.htm#historical

 

[Gavin A]

Re: CO2 concentrations break through the 400ppm barrier for first time in 800,000 yea

what I'm trying to get across here is that we / the scientists involved / know with a high degree of certainty that the recent warming can't be explained by any factors other than the increased greenhouse gas concentrations combined with reduced particulate levels, and land use change impacts.

This is an established scientific truth proven beyond all reasonable levels of doubt, and even virtually all the self proclaimed sceptic scientists accept this when pushed.

What is less certain is exactly how much warming we can expect from further increased levels of greenhouse gasses, largely because we simply have no way of knowing for sure what level of warming will result in various different feedback loops kicking in, and to what extent and how fast they will kick in.

The evidence from the arctic melting though is that these feedback mechanisms seem to be operating far earlier than the IPCC had thought likely / hoped for / and that the increased localised warming from these feedback mechanisms itself amplifies the warming in those areas to increase the feedback. So we've experience only an average 0.6 degree rise across the globe in the last 30 years, but much of the arctic has experienced 6 degree warming in that period, mostly in the last 10-15 years as when the ice melts it leaves dark seas or land behind which absorbs much more heat from the sun, and trapped methane in the permafrost is then released which also causes localised warming, melting more permafrost and releasing more trapped methane etc.


This graph comparing the IPCC predictions of the rate of melting of the arctic ice cover with the actual rate of melting we've experience is a good illustration of this. As it shows, the IPCC's worst case predictions for the melting would have meant we'd not be seeing the level of melting we've already experienced until around 2035.

 

[xiaoneitie]

Re: CO2 concentrations break through the 400ppm barrier for first time in 800,000 yea

Here here! Nice one Weng did not mention, we learned that a friend of emminent scientists there is evidence that global warming is a cyclical event, and government agencies and the threat of bankruptcy!