Is this for real????

[SRE]

Solar Power Portal group | LinkedIn

What complete idiots - I found this, come on you lot - greedy, self motivated individuals. What are you all moaning about - Sean can make this work :90:

 

[grandfortune]

cant see anything, asks for e-mail and pass

 

[SRE]

Try this :





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sean cavendish • The industry was let down by greedy self motivated individuals. The price is now right. Get on with business!!!!!!!!!!! You Can Do It.
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Suzanne Burgess • Given that 86% of houses are unlikely to meet the required c rating epc without spending a further £5-6k, exactly how do you propose we greedy, self motivated individuals get on with business. How exactly do you make 9p/kwh into a reasonable investment???
8 minutes ago

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[solarfred]

There is a mini boom potential between now and April (another scramble that barking Barker was telling us he wanted to avoid).
Run the numbers on the new tariff and see the prices now in the lowest part of the cycle. Forget quick big buck profits and make a judgement. All the current stocks will be gone and new stock is coming in; it's simple supply and demand economics. Still good returns but a good PV marketing man would be a huge asset (commission only, if they exist) and drive the demand. After April the ERC will definitely put the brakes on. I think I am right no ERC on installs before April?? At 9p I cannot make it work.

 

[TedM]

The logic of 9p is that at that rate a £12.5k 4kW system (yes I know, but DECC don't) would take the full 25 years just to breakeven (assuming a straight-line 4.8% RPI).

 

[SRE]

Yea I agree about the mini boom, we'll get over Christmas and it'll kick off again but stop dead in it's tracks come 1st April. At least it will give us some time to review business plans etc while we're not running round like headless chickens trying to secure stock.

 

[SolarCity]

Do you really think there will be any work after Christmas? Do you think some customers will still go for the 21p? I hope you're right but the figures look hopeless in my calculations.

The way human nature is, if the FIT was £1 and was cut to 43.3p in December, I still think it would be dead. It's the "Oh no, I missed my chance." mentality. This is why a severe cut is so damaging.

 

[series530]

Do you really think there will be any work after Christmas? Do you think some customers will still go for the 21p? I hope you're right but the figures look hopeless in my calculations.

The way human nature is, if the FIT was £1 and was cut to 43.3p in December, I still think it would be dead. It's the "Oh no, I missed my chance." mentality. This is why a severe cut is so damaging.

I think that a normal human approach that some will adopt early while others miss the chance.There will be a dip while people cotton on to the fact that 21p still represents a decent return. After that dip the market will pick up again.

That's what would normally happen anyway ....

The problem with this situation is the C efficiency regulation. Only a donkey would sign up for a 9p FIT and, if the cost and effort to achieve C certification (if it even can be achieved) is as high as we all think it is, most people wont want to make the effort for what becomes a modest return over a 25 year period. Added to this, I cannot see the rent a roof crowd sticking around so, all in all, demand will reduce substantially and lower volume will reduce raw material discount. Consumers will either have to accept cheap quality installations or accept a longer payback time. It will be a tough sell and only the donkeys or genuine green advocates will want to bite.

Had the 21p FIT stayed I think there would still have been a decent enough market. The C efficiency banding is the step too far. It was this this which really prompted me to write to our masters in Westminster.

 

[SolarCity]

But does the 15 year payback work? If you invest your money in a bank, you still have that initial capital. If you invest in a PV system then you have 12-15 years to wait until you get your money back. Only then do you start getting returns on it - coupled with the everpresent risk that the government will do something stupid again.

But as you say, the C efficiency element is the final bitter nail in the coffin.

 

[SRE]

We're taking bookings for surveys for after 12th December .... 3 taken already.

 

[solarfred]

See told you! Trouble is the PV is a declining asset which is why it was rejected as a potential pension product. So the argument for "investment" is not a straightforward one. Depends very much on the fuel and general inflation multiple as if you put that in at 6-8% the returns are reasonably worthwhile covering the average fuel bill. (pvgis).
If the kit can be priced accordingly the payback is under 10 years still.

 

[series530]

But does the 15 year payback work? If you invest your money in a bank, you still have that initial capital. If you invest in a PV system then you have 12-15 years to wait until you get your money back. Only then do you start getting returns on it - coupled with the everpresent risk that the government will do something stupid again.

But as you say, the C efficiency element is the final bitter nail in the coffin.

I did some maths on my installation. If I am to believe the installers information the money should be recovered in 8 years or so. If I look at the interest that I would be loosing on the capital if stuck in an ISA and compound that, by putting away the FIT payment I should be break even at about 12 years. This is all based upon 43.3p and doesn't take into account increases in electricity or RPI.

If I use the 21p figure and de-rate my install cost by 30% it takes until about year 15 to be cash neutral (by derating the FIT pay back by 40% - which is being generous!). Put the figure at 50% (for 21p) and its about 18 years. Barely attractive if I am honest - better to have the money in the bank and be able to access it!

Use a figure of 9p and you never pay off anything of any consequence - that's the figure for donkeys.

 

[SRE]

See told you! Trouble is the PV is a declining asset which is why it was rejected as a potential pension product. So the argument for "investment" is not a straightforward one. Depends very much on the fuel and general inflation multiple as if you put that in at 6-8% the returns are reasonably worthwhile covering the average fuel bill. (pvgis).
If the kit can be priced accordingly the payback is under 10 years still.

Mmm well I'm not counting my chickens yet, but I'm assuming that there will be an oversupply of kit and a reduction in our installation kits combined with the threat of nothing after April may combine into a few more jobs while the new business plan is developed.

I think there's going to be real problems with RHI though, who's going to believe the government now??


Anyway, back to the original post, this greedy, self motivated individual has got 12 months living to generate in 5 weeks!