Is this solar PV lark worth it?

[solarnubie]

I am considering having a system installed at home, but am a little confused by it all. I have had a couple of quotes, but feel a bit out of my dept, could anyone give me a bit of free and impartial advice with regards to PV? Due to size constaints I appear to be limited to a 2KwP system, using Sanyo 250w panels, which comes in at around 8.5K fitted.

OK Question time;

Are Sanyo panels any good, come with 10 year warranty, but can not find any comparison charts for performance against other panels
Does this price appear fair, the industry is fast getting the reputation of 'Double Glazing companies' of the '80s
Are the forcasted returns/generation levels to be believed (illustation by PVSol software shows break even point of about10 years). Is there any real data out there that supports these predictions? Or any data to show it is conservative?
What figures do people use to forcast usage/inflation/energy cost inflation/exported electricity amount?

any help would be appreciated.

Cheers

 

[SolarCity]

10 years seems long. What kind of conditions do you have? Shading? Orientation?

Price looks good.

 

[solarnubie]

from the quote a shading factor of 0.8, but only from roof, no trees etc. roof points SSE

 

[UK PV Systems]

whats the pitch of the roof?

£8.5k is not bad.

just looking at the conservative SAP calc at SE 30deg no shading on 2kWp system you should be closer to 8 years on £8.5k install cost.

Its defo worth while doing if you have the money sitting in the bank. Ask to speak to previous customers and examples of work.

 

[series530]

Most systems, if fitted properly and at a competitive price should return the original investment in 8 or so years. You need to be a little careful with mathematical interpretation though: if the money you would spend on the panels was invested in something like a high performing ISA would offer (and you could invest it as a long term proposition) you have to take into account the compound interest that you would earn on that investment.
Even though the FIT has index linking, it wont necessarily compound in the same way as a financial institutional investment. As a rough guide, you may want to add a couple of years to the return on the investment to take into account the interest - this also assumes that you re-invest the FIT payments as and when they appear. I don't believe that, however, the solar analysis software takes this into account.

Looking at your situation, it seems like you have roof space issues and that Sanyo is a good way to go. The Sanyo panels cost more up front but give a better harvest per square metre than almost anything else. Your install will suffer from a significant fixed cost of installation, design and customer service compared to the material cost. With such a high labour percentage I think that it makes sense for you to fit the highest yielding panels that you can. After all, the fixed costs will be roughly the same irrespective of your panel choice but your yield could be greatly different.

Either way, act fast before the rush to beat the April deadline.

 

[solarnubie]

cheers for the input guys. think it is the way to go, but still a big investment on a whim. looking at the returns spread sheet there are so many variables to take into account, and so much guestimation that I don't think there is an answer to the question, just a probability. If any one of the variables changes significantly then what could have been a good investment turns into a loss. I agree that I need to get as much out of a limited roof space, and the sanyo appears to be the way to go. Just as another thought, is it cost effective to split the array over two 90 degree differing aspects. My main roof points SSE, but I have a ridge running 90 degree to this, ieNNE on which I could put an additional couple of panels, but then Split input inverters come into it. Are the disproportionately more expensive? Are they worth it for a couple of 250w panels?

Oh, and 30 dergree pitch.

 

[Worcester]

Either way, act fast before the rush to beat the April deadline.

If you read some of the other post on here, there is a real chance that might actually be a January deadline.

 

[SolarCity]

cheers for the input guys. think it is the way to go, but still a big investment on a whim. looking at the returns spread sheet there are so many variables to take into account, and so much guestimation that I don't think there is an answer to the question, just a probability. If any one of the variables changes significantly then what could have been a good investment turns into a loss. I agree that I need to get as much out of a limited roof space, and the sanyo appears to be the way to go. Just as another thought, is it cost effective to split the array over two 90 degree differing aspects. My main roof points SSE, but I have a ridge running 90 degree to this, ieNNE on which I could put an additional couple of panels, but then Split input inverters come into it. Are the disproportionately more expensive? Are they worth it for a couple of 250w panels?

Oh, and 30 dergree pitch.

Are you sure you mean NNE and not ENE? ENE would be 90 degree to your SSE roof.

At a pitch of 30 degrees, it would definitely be something that I'd recommend looking into. Power One inverters might be a good call as they would handle this kind of set up and they are not disproportionately expensive.

However, if you're only installing two more 250w panels then I'd say it won't be worth it (nor would they produce enough voltage for the inverter)

 

[series530]

If you read some of the other post on here, there is a real chance that might actually be a January deadline.

Could you point me toward these posts - Enecsys had better deliver as promised (the planned inverter install is 21st October) or I will be biting my nails and my fingers off !

 

[SolarCity]

http://www.electriciansforums.net/p...43294-twiiter-deccgovuk-live-greg-barker.html

You'll be biting your fingers off and I'll be throwing myself off a bridge. I've already cancelled a trip to Bruges as I'm anticipating a mad rush.

 

[series530]

Thanks for the link - sobering information for customers but, correctly stated, far more worrying for installers.

No doubt, if it happens, and it will happen in some shape or form, there will be contraction in the industry. That said, the important thing is to prove that there is an almost cash neutral ROI for those who consider an install after a reduction in the tariff. Let's say that the ROI was 10 years in the spring of this year as a point of reference. If, through competition as a result of falling material costs and more installers in the market, the cost of a system has dropped by, say, 40% by the time an adjustment to the FIT is implemented and the FIT drops by 40%, the ROI is still about the same. These aren't intended as hard numbers, just to illustrate a point. The ROI (ignoring compound interest) is still about the same and far higher than that offered by a bank deposit.

It will cause a feeding frenzy leading up to the FIT change and a lull soon afterwards, but I suspect that the market will stabilise once people realise that this is still a good deal... especially if energy prices climb again. The change in FIT may squeeze some of installers out of the market - primarily those who over charge (Nationals being a good example). I suspect though, that FIT will still be self correcting and that there will still be a reasonably healthy market going forward.

The winners are the installers who can charge any price they want as we get closer to the cut off and those who bought just before the final rush - I don't really include myself in that category because we chose a more expensive micro inversion based system with the long haul in mind, albeit a little cheaper than we would have probably paid at the start of 2011.

My biggest fear is that they change the price before I get my application in ... in which case Enecsys will be off my Christmas card list.

 

[SolarCity]

I hope you're right, Ian. But I don't see it that way.

If it isn't attractive to customers now then I don't see where the new market will come from if a 30% reduction in FITs is implemented. We would be better off with a tiered reduction over the year - at least this way it would give the industry chance to adjust.

 

[series530]

I hope you're right, Ian. But I don't see it that way.

If it isn't attractive to customers now then I don't see where the new market will come from if a 30% reduction in FITs is implemented. We would be better off with a tiered reduction over the year - at least this way it would give the industry chance to adjust.

I agree that a tiered approach is fairer and allows the industry to adjust on a more linear scale. The problem is that this is probably seen as more difficult to implement as agencies have to invest cost each and every time something changes - one change a year is easier to implement than, say, 12.

I guess that if there is evidence to show that the FIT is already causing the industry to stall now there is every reason to expect that it will hamper the industry further following a FIT reduction. If, on the other hand, the market is still pretty buoyant (and not just because of a rush to get it before the deadline) people will still probably see the FIT as a decent investment even after a reduction. Let's say somebody invested £16,000 earlier this year - that's a huge sum to find but a fairly attractive investment with an ROI of, say 10%. Project forward now to some point early next spring where the installation may now cost, say £10,000. It's still a lot to find but an easier pill than £16,000 and if the ROI is still in the 10 year region, it's still a decent deal. Several years from now I suspect that the material costs will reach a bottom and the service cost to install will either bottom out or rise with labour costs. The market will be reaching saturation and, if the FIT continues to fall, it will become a less and less attractive proposition.

Going forward I think that there will need to be more effort in marketing the concept than now. People just see it as free money at the moment. Some snubbing will take place if the FIT drops heavily but after that the industry needs to keep selling the message that PV is still a better proposition than stocks and shares, property or ISA's. An ROI of 10% or even 7 or 8 is still better than virtually any other investment on the high street. Plus, with rising energy prices, it actually plays toward the PV market rather than against it.

 

[Worcester]

An ROI of 10% or even 7 or 8 is still better than virtually any other investment on the high street. Plus, with rising energy prices, it actually plays toward the PV market rather than against it.

The problem is though that unless (for which there is no proof yet) property values are increased by the installation of PV, then since that money is spent it is now a capital expenditure, not a capital investment, then your true ROI is much much smaller.

It is more akin to purchasing an annuity than it is to a cash investment.

Compared to a cash investment, where you can still realise the cash as an asset, taking that approach, it may not add up.

 

[series530]

The problem is though that unless (for which there is no proof yet) property values are increased by the installation of PV, then since that money is spent it is now a capital expenditure, not a capital investment, then your true ROI is much much smaller.

It is more akin to purchasing an annuity than it is to a cash investment.

Compared to a cash investment, where you can still realise the cash as an asset, taking that approach, it may not add up.

That is a very true and fair point - I see it more as a return on capital investment as it will take those years to recover the initial expenditure. As a short term investment it is very much an annuity but as a longer term investment it is a vehicle for profit.

In my case, and subject to circumstance, we plan to stay in our property well beyond a point where we have exceeded a break even point. If the installation provides an uplift in property value it is a bonus. If it doesn't the years beyond the break even will provide us with a profit via a very useful annuity and at a time where the income will be of benefit because we will be near to or actually in retirement.

Plus, we will be making a green contribution to the world.