SAP Calculation Spreadsheet

[Earthstore]

You are going around in circles.

As I have put before the are so many variables, on paper you could have whatever end result you want, please give up on your calculating.

Ask several people that have had PV for a while, they will tell you.

A customer once said to me, I have my washing machine going, my meter is stationary, and every three months my electric company dump a load of money into my account, it's great.

pv is still one of the best long term investments you can make, but your system has to be designed well for you to get the best returns.

What returns are you looking for?
10% per anum on your investment, index linked? More or less than this?

 

[Telegram Sam]

pv is still one of the best long term investments you can make, but your system has to be designed well for you to get the best returns.

What returns are you looking for?
10% per anum on your investment, index linked? More or less than this?

A payback / breakeven within as near as possible to 5 years strikes me as a reasonable target even if in my circs I am by no means convinced that it is achievable. This is the reason for the homework before taking the plunge.

 

[Earthstore]

PV is a longer term investment tax free also for domestic installs, so you are looking for a 20% return spread evenly over 5 years, as good as PV is I do not think you can realistically achieve that, the banks are retuning what, 2.5%, PV should return you around 10% year 1 then index linked from then on, also your return may rise if energy prices rise, but being realistic not to equal you 20% target.

I still believe these numbers are good for a low risk, tax free investment, but if you are aware of anything better then please share it with us all.

 

[Telegram Sam]

PV is a longer term investment tax free also for domestic installs, so you are looking for a 20% return spread evenly over 5 years, as good as PV is I do not think you can realistically achieve that, the banks are retuning what, 2.5%, PV should return you around 10% year 1 then index linked from then on, also your return may rise if energy prices rise, but being realistic not to equal you 20% target.

I still believe these numbers are good for a low risk, tax free investment, but if you are aware of anything better then please share it with us all.

The big mistake I made at the beginning was to compare PV with banks and building societies. Once you’ve put your money into PV there’s no going back – never ever. Your money’s gone and you depend entirely on the return that it generates.

No doubt your crystal ball is more advanced than mine but I won’t believe anyone’s predictions about what the situation will be in 5 + years’ time. If it’s only jam tomorrow after 10 – 15 years then thanks I’ll put my money into something more modest. If it will only start to pay for itself after (say) 8 + years then I want to be pretty convinced of the (financial and technical) fundamentals first, or I’m a real mug. Whilst doing my “research” I’m keeping an open mind – I remain to be convinced as any of the forum readers in my situation would be. I’d be keen to hear from any readers who have gone through a similar learning curve as mine.

 

[Telegram Sam]

The research that I have been able to do seems to come to a consensus that I will achieve a little over 3000 kWh p.a. from a 4 kW system in my location. I reckon that my own consumption of solar will be low due to the direct mismatch between the times of solar generation and electricity consumption - I have scaled the percentage down to 10% which is way below what most installers like to quote. On this basis and depending on the cost of the system chosen I reckon on a payback period of the order of 8 1/2 years, and 13 1/2 years before a PV installation would equal the return from investing the same amount in a savings account or ISA yielding (say) 4% after tax. These figures will obviously vary depending on the underlying assumptions made, but not the order of magnitude. Conclusion: PV's could well be a good investment for a family on the south coast, but those of us who live in the north and those with limited daytime consumption have to see through the hype and realise that these are very long term investments - to be compared against investments with much higher returns considering how long one's money is tied up.

 

[Earthstore]

Set your appliances on timers, or install an automated switching device, that would bring your usage up.
I have to say though, that none of my customers only use 10% of their production, they make small alterations in how they live to make the most of what is free.

You appear to have convinced yourself that it is not right for you, however there are 1000's of systems up north, and all of the quality installs are doing very well.

Even though I have stepped out of the industry for a while, PV is still one of the best long term investments that is available to the masses.

 

[Telegram Sam]

I can't and won't contradict what you say, I just wish that someone somewhere would come up with the hard evidence to show that I am wrong! (Moving my own consumption to - say - 25% is not going to make a dramatic difference to the overall conclusions)

 

[Telegram Sam]

Technically - I am intrigued by the claimed outperformance of [Solar Frontier] thin film modules over the conventional crystalline panels, and am tempted to go for these in spite of the higher cost but not with Solar Edge. I don't know what experience other readers have of these and if they are already in a position to make any kind of a judgement.
Financially - I think the whole SV issue is at best borderline. You are in effect pre-paying up front your energy costs for the following approx 8 - 9 years in the hope and expectation that you will reap the benefits over an equivalent timescale thereafter. The best comparison is with a pension annuity where you are taking the gamble with the provider over how long you will stick around to recoup your investment. Granted that compared with an annuity, under specified conditions the returns from solar are really quite attractive - but mainly on account of the atrociously low returns anyone can get from an annuity these days. I am on the fence!

 

[SRE]

Telegram Sam I don't really think you're on the fence - you're very cautious with your money and you want guaranteed returns, imho solar really isn't for you. You're probably better putting it in a bank account so you have the reassurance that the money is there if you need it.

Solar isn't for everyone, it's a long term investment using sensible assumptions but without any sort of guarantee of weather the cautious investor will never feel able to commit. I'm not that type of investor, I have 3 systems installed in a similar location to you and I'm delighted with the returns. 2 of the properties are rentals and I don't get any benefit whatsoever from using the electric generated. I'm pleased with the income, it's way more than if I put it in the best ISA at 3% (not sure where you found 4% - I got that last year but nothing like it this year)

In life very little is certain, if you invested in housing, the stock market, pensions then in all probability over the short term you've been let down. In the longer term fingers crossed it will prove to be worth while. Investing in solar is much more predictable than the previous examples but an equally long investment so it doesn't really matter which panel/inverter combination you go for, unless the returns are guaranteed and the price low you're not going to feel confident enough to invest. To get the return you want of 20% (not sure where else you'd get even a quarter of that for tying up your cash) you'd have to screw the installer on price and will end up with a badly designed and installed system that will justify your initial feelings that solar can't achieve the returns you want.

Stick your cash in an ISA at 3% - you'll feel safer

 

[Berneray]

With the 7th of May only a matter of weeks I'm now sitting down with a blank spreadsheet and my new pristine copy of The Guide to the Installation of PV Systems....and the Dummies Guide to Office 360!

Today I am going to be mostly concentrating on Pages 55 to 66.

Wish me luck.... I may be gone for some time.....

 

[whinmoor]

With the 7th of May only a matter of weeks I'm now sitting down with a blank spreadsheet and my new pristine copy of The Guide to the Installation of PV Systems....and the Dummies Guide to Office 360!

Today I am going to be mostly concentrating on Pages 55 to 66.

Wish me luck.... I may be gone for some time.....

Strong coffee needed along with matchsticks to keep eyes open...

 

[Berneray]

Have any of you guys been trialing the new PV Performance Estimation method against SAP2009.

I've done a few this afternoon and found that BEFORE making an allowance for shading the TOP figure is actually higher even for Zones 15 & 16 (North East Scotland). However this changes substantially depending on how you use their Horizon Template...

I wonder how many of our sharp dressed salesmen will bother with the shading....or even have the brains to know how to do it....

I know the guide has been drawn up to prevent miss-selling.....but these guys are so good at waffling I bet as from 7/5 most of their PV Estimates will be higher than before....