Will the Domestic PV market recover?

[confounded]

The current tariff and paybacks are as good as they were when we started out but the jobs are not there in the qunatity they were in the same conditions. This is a natural response to the turmoil we have been through for the last 12 months, the way I see it is domestic PV is effectively starting anew.

In 2010 we predicted a boom in domestic PV and at the time there was only one PV system in our home town. By April 2011 signs of life in the market began to emerge but we did start to doubt if we had been over optimistic with our business model, it was hard work to stay to our targets.

May saw more encouragement and as the summer progressed things snowballed and the boom was on, then the tariff cut came and the rest is history. My view is at we are back to January 2011 level of interest and enquiries which is not where we want to be but with patience as people understand that the new tariff does deliver acceptable rates of returns and it can be funded for half the previous cost the momentum will build. It is quite possible in the years to come we will face steep regression, but at least we know now there is a tariff framework laid out in front of us.

We look back on last year at our turnover and profit, but then when you look in more detail 75% of it was made in 6 months, crazy times, but I welcome the stability now I believe we have been through the worst the industry can throw at us.

However, and not wanting to finish on a negative note, the only cloud I can see on the horizon (while wearing my rose tinted classes on this sunny morning) is the EU trade sanctions that are possible on the Chinese modules, they are giving us the returns we have now, a 20-30% increase in module prices is possible and could be the final blow to my new found optimism...

 

[Eco Deal]

and the 20% Vat Rise ??

oh and the other 5000 installers

 

[Gavin A]

we did an analysis of the long term trends on google for the search terms 'solar PV' and 'solar panels' for England, and from this I've basically concluded that interest in solar PV among the wider public has now dropped to a similar level to that around the start of the feed in tariff scheme in early 2010, or possibly even before that.

searches for solar PV are so low now they're not even registering.



I don't see this recovering at all until next summer now, unless we get another debbie meaden on the dragons den type impact happening.

I've said it before, the market is not behaving rationally at all, the returns are there, the finances stack up, but the reputation of the industry is in tatters, with people like the energy saving trust and which kicking us while we're down by issuing reports using misleading figures that totally misrepresent the situation, plus guilt by association with the rent a roof mob.

Google searches for 'solar PV' are as low as at the start of the FIT scheme - Leeds Solar | Solar installers blog and renewable energy industry news

 

[Energetic]

I think that might be slightly misleading, theres a lot more PV out there now. Most of our work comes from referrals, in the last 6 months just about all of it.

The general understanding of PV is higher and and people feel the need to research it less which could amount to less googling. Also everyone now has 'local' installers of one form or another and would be more likely to google company names than solar pv i reckon...

 

[Eco Deal]

How would you search company names if you
dont know they exist

2010 the was 800-1500 installers
now there under 5000



The searchs are shared etc

When i started it was hard to find an wholesaler

This cut ive done 3 sales in aug / sep
idis 40 last quarter
bi customers anymore

 

[Energetic]

How would you search company names if you
dont know they exist

2010 the was 800-1500 installers
now there under 5000

If some of your neighbours have PV you ask them who did it and they give you the installers phone number. Thats how it happens round here.

Local companies serving their local communities build a local reputation by working and advertising locally.

 

[Gavin A]

I see your point to some extent, but that's surely taking it back to more of a niche product, when last year it was increasingly becoming a mainstream product that a lot of people were interested in and seriously considering, which was the entire point of the FIT scheme.

 

[SolarCity]

The gold rush has caused all sorts of problems in my opinion.

1. The dramatic drops in FITs has led the general public to believe they have 'missed the boat'.
2. The many training schemes, promises of riches and lack of other work has led to far too many companies becoming MCS PV installers. A lot of these installers are roofers, general builders or worse - far worse - salespeople employing idiots. This leads to the next two problems.
3. PV has become the new double glazing. Crap reports from likes of Which? and horror stories from the likes of Energy Saving Group or Solar Energy Savings means that customers treat us with far more suspicion than they did two years ago. Pretty much every potential customer we visit has been given AWFUL advice by at least one company.
4. There are far, FAR too many crap firms that frankly do not know what they are doing - a quick search through our forum will show you evidence of this. You need only drive down the road and glance upwards once in a while to see an install that has been bodged up by some idiot.
5. Too many firms means too little profit - corners will get cut and the worst installers will generally be the one that win the job.

We are now diversifying once again into other work having finally admitted defeat - PV isn't enough to keep us going alone. We need other work to fill in the every-growing gaps.

 

[confounded]

Looks like we may be the last men standing at this rate.

I am still optimistic PV will make a recovery now we have stability, however after reading the G83 thread yesterday afternoon, my mornings optimisms waned somewhat....

 

[dansk]

Solarcity has hit the nail on the head -

2. The many training schemes, promises of riches and lack of other work has led to far too many companies becoming MCS PV installers. A lot of these installers are roofers, general builders or worse - far worse - salespeople employing idiots. This leads to the next two problems.

Read more: http://www.electriciansforums.net/s...domestic-pv-market-recover.html#ixzz26Ew7BbQd

Every month in PE magazine adverts banging on that PV is the key to the honey pot, pricks the lot of them, the real winners were all the MCS bodies, NAPT et it all.

Just take a look now there banging on about GD - become a GD installer its the next best thing since sliced bread - thats what they said about PV./
​

 

[solarsavings]

For us PV will now play a very minor part in our business paln we can't waste anymore time and money in an area that offers so little return, if a job comes along we want we will take it but we're not going to break our necks trying to find work.

Like others we made an obscene amount of money in a very short period of time. Learned a lot about people and ourselves in that time too. Something that I'd missed in the previous 30 years ;-)

We have learned to get paid on completion of a job :-o Something we were bad at before was getting paid for work we had done, we were just too busy and it has cost us a lot on money over the years. Paperwork is still a pain but at least we can find our way around it now

 

[dansk]

Same here, we dont actively go chasing PV work anymore, if it comes along thats fine, if not thats fine also!

Ive enjoyed my time in PV and still do, its still a nice service to offer and have under the belt.