Grid parity -

[finchy]

Hi guys I'm just writing about solar & future. I attended the Cuts Road show last week and they (DECC and other panel members) were talking about grid parity. I need a definative definition of what grid parity is, they were saying it will happen in 6 years. So they are saying that between the cost of installing PV and the price of Energy these two will become the same in 6 years. Does that mean where now my Electric bill is say £700 year the price of Solar will be £700??? Obviously compounded energy prices increases I hope is the biggest lever as installation costs can only go so far.

I guess the worrying thing is energy prices might be the one giving going forward, as prices can only go so far. I'm sure the development in cheaper batteries might help things along as the problem with Solar is we use a higher % when the Sun isnt shining, so grid parity has to take usable energy hours. So of my £700 only 40% is deemed during Solar PV hours that makes 6 years a massive mountain........

The more I write this the more confused I am or worried !!

Your thoughts please........

 

[nowty]

Depends where you are too, for example the south coast of England will reach grid parity long before Scotland.

 

[babba]

Finchy I told you they would spike your drink and now your a nervous reck...as for the grid parity...dont have a clue..

 

[finchy]

Yeah I've lost it !

 

[fitzsparks]

My take on grid parity is that over a given time-frame (say 20 years) the cost of putting in PV will be at least equalled by the cost of the grid electricity you would have used if you didn't have a PV set-up. This is without any Feed-In Tariff to top it all up.

A simple example :
Cost of PV : £8,000 for 3.4kWp set up
Number of kWHr in year produced by PV : 2,900
Assuming 14p/kWHr, money saved is 014 x 2900 x 20 =£8,120 over 20 years

This is obviously not factoring interest rates (if you borrowed the money) or escalating fuel prices or inflation, but I think that this is what is meant by grid-parity. There are so many unknowns and future projections involved (ie guesswork) that it will be hard to be certain that this can be guaranteed achievable

 

[finchy]

Thanks Fizspark I think that make more sence. But indeed theres a lot of guess work in all the figures ....

 

[SRE]

Greg Barker was tweeting about 5 cents/watt for the cost of solar by 2016 meaning we'd achieve grid parity by then. He forgot to mention that this was in Arizona where the sun is more than twice the intensity of Germany and the UK.

Was there any glimmer of hope at the roadshow??

 

[fitzsparks]

The sad truth about Mr Barker & the other comedians at the DECC, is that they could learn more about the renewable markets by logging into this forum for 1/2 an hour than they could by spending a month in meetings with their "expert advisers"!!! I would be concerned about letting them make the tea at my organisation without supervision!!!
I don't think that Grid Parity is a level playing field, unless you already own the PV kit, as all the rest is just estimates and conjecture. I have very major doubts that grid parity or indeed the 20GW installed, that are proposed will be achieved under the present system. Grid parity (IMHO) will rely on PV owners being able to get a market rate for the power produced, not the 3p/unit that it attracts at present.

 

[finchy]

the road shows didnt have any glimmer of hope just urging us to respone to the consulatation. They indicated Export rates could be increased. It was good to network and hear from other installers. As for the green deal the chap from NAPIT couldnt answer my question.

I dont think any figures stack up ! the fact is we need to try make the figures work for us within the MCS and REAL rules !!

I was trying to work backward to see what solar pov costs and energy prices could be if we achieve grid parity ......

 

[babba]

.

I dont think any figures stack up ! the fact is we need to try make the figures work for us within the MCS and REAL rules !!

There is no rule saying you cant install free of charge......


I was trying to work backward to see what solar pov costs and energy prices could be if we achieve grid parity ......[/QUOTE]

Im trying to picture this... has that road show had a lasting effects....Finchy your a nutter...LOL

 

[SRE]

Cost of 10k with 16p/kwh cost from utilities and 3.1p generation tariff - no Fit at all - payback 17 years assuming 50% useage. SE roof with 30 degree pitch.

Cost of 9k with 16p/kwh cost from utilities and 3.1p generation tariff - no FiT at all - payback 16 years.

Not sure if we should be counting grid parity as with or without generation tariff.

 

[sambotc]

Is there any inclusion of maintenance costs as well?

 

[SRE]

Nope, conveniently forgot it but if you assume that prices of pv equipment fall by 1k that would more than cover the cost of an inverter replacement in 10 - 15 years if you needed it.