PV Panel prices going up soon?

[Jaycee]

So lets review the situation starting to take shape:

1. Suppliers putting up price on existing stocks
2. No immediate deliveries of Chinese modules

What do you think will happen to the prices of eu made modules? Yes they will go up!

Now correct me if I am wrong, but the FIT cuts were due to material prices dropping, can you see the FIT being reviewed? No, neither can I.

So customer payback periods increase, solar installs slow up, industry slows down even more than it already has, firms go pop, people lose jobs.

 

[Ian-LS]

So lets review the situation starting to take shape:

1. Suppliers putting up price on existing stocks
2. No immediate deliveries of Chinese modules

What do you think will happen to the prices of eu made modules? Yes they will go up!

Now correct me if I am wrong, but the FIT cuts were due to material prices dropping, can you see the FIT being reviewed? No, neither can I.

So customer payback periods increase, solar installs slow up, industry slows down even more than it already has, firms go pop, people lose jobs.

i've had verbal confirmation that korean hyundai and LG panels are not expected to increase on price over next few months. Although if this changes our trade bodies need to be on deccs case to increase the feed in tariff. Theyd have direct access to costs if theyd stipulated what installers were supposed to put on the MCS cert for costs. Yet we are all putting £0.00 as again those at the top haven't thought things through properly

 

[bhmt]

What do you think will happen to the prices of eu made modules? Yes they will go up!

Now correct me if I am wrong, but the FIT cuts were due to material prices dropping, can you see the FIT being reviewed? No, neither can I.
.

Not necessary - as for now 80% of modules installed in UK are Chinese. Most of European manufacturers were unable to secure enough market in UK. So they might see this as a chance to compete and increase their sale in UK. Even if this will be only short term - still, money is money.
How much more you can pay for modules and still make money? 15%?20%? Even at current level EU modules are at least 15% dearer then Chinese.
All that have to add up.

FIT - FIT is also related to level of installations so..I would be far from panicking.

PS. Open letter to the EU Commissioner for Trade | AFASE

 

[Worcester]

Of the whole time at Eco-build, 6 hours was soent in discussions with panel manufacturers.

Bottom lines,
1) Some have no stock for sale in Europe, and aren't planning to ship anymore till they know the situation in June.
2) a) Some sold out all their stock before 5th March to large wholesalers at the normal price as they wanted shot of the stock.
b) Those wholsalers that committed ther ££ are putting up prices on stock bought at the low prices due to 'supply and demand'
3) Some have alternative supply lines manufacturing in Taiwan, Canadia, Rumania, Malaysia, etc these stocks are currently being shipped to the EU, expect a 2 - 4p price / W increase over February prices. - Also product won't be here till end April.
4) Some are prepared to weather the storm and have set up companies in the EU which will clear the stock from customs and sell on at prices as in 3) above they will cover the risk of retrospective duties. These companies may take about 4 weks to set up, and they will decided wether to continue to run the risk after June or pullout - they have other worlwide miarkets.

So
A) If you need / must have panels today - you'll pay a premuim price from the Wolesalers
B) If you can schedule those projects for 4 - 6 weeks away you'll get better prices.

 

[JJPJ]

Anyone have any inputs on point 4 above (supplies via new companies being set up)? Whoever imports the panels into the EU must pay the duty, wherever they are. It sounds questionable that any company would be willing to cover the risk of duties, it's a huge gamble. I'd be very wary of buying through such companies, all the more so if they're only being set up now ad-hoc. My guess is they're fly by night operators who'll disappear when it comes to settling the duties (perhaps locating in jurisdictions that the legal process takes time to reach), be careful the t&c's don't leave you liable, customs & excise will be looking for someone to pick up the tab that's for sure.

 

[Worcester]

JJPJ -
The companies are being set up directly by the panel manufacturers.
See my post on the Anti-Dumping Duty and you'll understand that the risk may be quite small, if they just do it untill the 6/6/2013

Care to introduce yourself - what's your background?

 

[Earthstore]

JJPJ -
The companies are being set up directly by the panel manufacturers.
See my post on the Anti-Dumping Duty and you'll understand that the risk may be quite small, if they just do it untill the 6/6/2013

Care to introduce yourself - what's your background?

Sounds like a spy, firing one over the bow....

 

[Tesla1980]

everythings going up soon :rolleyes4:

 

[JJPJ]

Haven’t seen your post Worcester so not sure what you mean by small risk, different takes on the retrospective but some are certainly expecting it & if a manufacturer’s margin is 5% I can’t see how duty of 30-80% can be considered marginal. A month or 2 of shipments with the AD can burn you a YEAR or two of profits.. What’s also not clear is why go to the trouble of setting up a new company, location doesn’t have any bearing on things so can’t see how this helps unless you’re planning to fold as soon as things hit the fan, or perhaps you’re pooling risk together with other suppliers? Any duty applied will be company specific however (same as the US case), if your product is China free (Taiwanese etc) there’s no point in pooling with others, if it ain’t you’re as likely to increase your risk given you have a better knowledge of your own company’s circumstances than those of others. In the US duties varied from zero to 30 to 250%, not small differences, you’d think it would be safer for each to go his own way & hope for the best (unless you were sure to be in trouble, in which case nobody would want pool with you..) Am probably missing something, otherwise it does sound a kinda peculiar solution. Come from another biz over the pond, was planning to do something with solar here but will take it easy now till things get cleared up in Europe.

 

[Gavin A]

Haven’t seen your post Worcester so not sure what you mean by small risk, different takes on the retrospective but some are certainly expecting it & if a manufacturer’s margin is 5% I can’t see how duty of 30-80% can be considered marginal. A month or 2 of shipments with the AD can burn you a YEAR or two of profits.. What’s also not clear is why go to the trouble of setting up a new company, location doesn’t have any bearing on things so can’t see how this helps unless you’re planning to fold as soon as things hit the fan, or perhaps you’re pooling risk together with other suppliers? Any duty applied will be company specific however (same as the US case), if your product is China free (Taiwanese etc) there’s no point in pooling with others, if it ain’t you’re as likely to increase your risk given you have a better knowledge of your own company’s circumstances than those of others. In the US duties varied from zero to 30 to 250%, not small differences, you’d think it would be safer for each to go his own way & hope for the best (unless you were sure to be in trouble, in which case nobody would want pool with you..) Am probably missing something, otherwise it does sound a kinda peculiar solution. Come from another biz over the pond, was planning to do something with solar here but will take it easy now till things get cleared up in Europe.

It'd be the chinese manufacturers setting up a company to do the importing themselves and then take the hit on any duty that did get imposed directly.

Presumably it's better for them to do that and maintain market share in the world's biggest solar market than to have their plants sat idle, and I could well imagine the chinese government stepping in to pay the duty directly, then recouping it by levying a tax on some EU product, or just charging the EU a bit more interest to borrow form them or something.

Either way, if they're prepared to shoulder the risk, then that should stabilise the situation a lot.

 

[JJPJ]

It'd be the chinese manufacturers setting up a company to do the importing themselves and then take the hit on any duty that did get imposed directly.

Any idea which manufacturers and where Gavin? All the big Chinese already have subsidiaries in Europe, what’s the point in them setting up new ones ad-hoc, why not use their existing ones?


Still, I follow your reasoning & whilst there could be some sense to it (without the opening up new companies bit, unless there’s something else behind the picture) I personally don’t see them selling (or even trying to sell) too much this way. The hit they’d take is too big & no-one can afford that right now. They’d be better off selling more to higher price markets (Japan, US, Aus), or anywhere else in fact, with say 30% EU duty you’re better off selling 20% cheaper in any market.


No point in them keeping their Chinese fabs too busy, US & EU with AD means they have to make product outside of China for a good portion of world demand. Better for them to shift their sourcing & supply chains outside of China asap, focus on new markets & cut their sales (erm losses) in EU until China-free production is ramped up.


Sorry if I sound less optimistic, I think your scenario could work but more likely with them just trickling in a little product to show they’re not abandoning the EU & keep their client base working with something. Not enough to avoid prices rising however, helping them in turn to get the market to restabilise at a higher level once the China-free product is available, offsetting the higher costs they’ll have under this new supply chain & maybe even recuperating margins. Would love to be wrong but can’t see anything other than prices heading north.

 

[Gavin A]

I think it was Worcester that mentioned that, and IIRC he's been importing direct so might be in a better position to know than me, I was just paraphrasing.

I can't believe how nuts it is that the EU would spend so much money building up the global solar industry only to destroy it again with this ill conceived policy. It's not going to save EU manufacturers, only making themselves cost competitive with the chinese can do that, along with a massive increase in the solar market so everyone can operate at full capacity again - EU should have stepped in to reverse the impact of the FIT cuts across Europe to stimulate demand if they wanted to save the EU solar manufacturers, not this, anything but this.

 

[SRE]

Another wholesaler is suggesting this morning that it could be December before we get some clarity - anyone else heard this?

 

[moggy1968]

Yep, the big K told me.
I suppose introducing uncertainty into the market for almost a year is a backdoor way of killing Chinese imports without having to go through all that messy legislation stuff.
It's a proper shambles.
Why the hell do we stay in the EU?
Oh yeh, keep all those MEPs and other parasites in work!!
We could easilly pull out and stay within the free trade zone or whatever it's called, like switzerland and others. The financial drain of being in the EU really isn't worth it, and thats without the nonsence legislation they come out with!!

 

[Gavin A]

be careful what you wish for there moggy.

The EU has been the main driver behind UK & european renewable energy policy and targets over the last decade, and remains the key driver through to at least 2020 as it's EU targets we've committed to meeting.

This current situation is a major blemish on the EU record, and tbh with this and their handling of the financial crisis they're properly making a pigs ear of things, but that seems to be just reflecting the collective insanity on economic policies that's swept across europe recently, with the UK being a key driving force in that madness.