Self employed earnings/Credit crunch slowdown ?

[Dazza1976]

Hi all,

How much can i expect to earn as a self employed spark, with regular work coming in ???
Do you guys make a comfortable living from the trade ?

Have any of you noticed things slowing down of late, with the credit crunch kicking in, and the housing market suffering ??

p.s im not a nosey ******* !!! just want to know i made the correct career choice.

 

[sparkyork]

hi mate if you charged say £25 per hour and have forty hours a week then you got a grand less tax, wink wink

or more an hour more a week, get a good price in on a job and be quids in, make money on materials etc

im only just starting to get sorted for work, partly cos ive only just started advertising (wanted to wait till nic thing was sorted)

building game does seem to have suffered but theres allways people wanting work done, and if they dont want to buy new houses theyll build extensions.

although a bit stressful at times i dont think i could ever work for anybody else again.

if you keep your self busy you should turn over a minimum of 52k plus extras

 

[tony.towa]

Whilst the present situation has had a dramatic effect on the building trade and the house market, the last time this happened it actually created a greater demand for people to have things done in their home (once they had stabilised their personal situation). Sales of things like conservatories and small extensions increased as people were wary of moving and decided to maximise on their existing property.

Realistically this is likely to happen again, before the market picks up and so a good sparks is likely to maintain a half decent work load, although the larger jobs may be further apart.

I think I might have said it somewhere before, at the end of the day the more you put in, the more you get out.

 

[Spudmiester]

It is a bit slow for me at the moment, but I do other stuff as well.

Tony is right, reciperical returns , you gets out what you puts in , I am about to do a marketing pitch on the electrical stuff, trouble is I do mostly industrial, and factories are few and far between round our way.

 

[Carter]

Don't see any soft landings this time around, the financial and geo-political situation is very different and the last real scare was the '73 oil crisis. Then they just asked the House of Saud to open the oil taps to redress the supply vs demand imbalance which at the time stood at a mere 6%. Just a 6% differential caused the oil price to triple and it took nearly 10 years for the world economy to readjust.

The "open the taps" option no longer exists as all the 'low hanging fruit' has been found and extracted. Only 1 barrel of new oil is being found for each four used. The term "credit crunch" is merely a euphamism for a much deeper set of problems. Oil now UNDERPINS EVERY HUMAN ENDEAVOUR AND INTERACTION.
The days of sparks clattering 100miles up a motorway and back each day are coming to an end. there WILL need to be a re-assessment of what 'local' actually means.
For credit crunch substitute the term energy crunch and on to the real issue; the "CONFIDENCE CRUNCH".

The gnomes of Zurich have finally taken the cloth off their crystal ball and don't like what they are seeing. They know that every pension, investment, insurance policy, bill of lading, mortgage security and bank note in circulation only has value because of the PROMISE of continuing oil and downstream energy security upon which pretty much all commercial activity is dependant. That promise is about to be broken big time. I hear the sound of banking house ladders being drawn up and the drawbridges dropped.
Why else would they have bailed out Northern Rock at the drop of a hat. No question about it, they had no choice since the government (with its wallet boggling PSB (Public Sector Borrowing) liabilities and the wider nation (with £1.3b of lending are effectively in hock to them. £50 BILLION! with a possible exposure topping £100b!! Jeezus H Christ. How long did it take to arrange that? 3 days? Bloody hell I wish I had a bank manager that accommodating and responsive. The true reason of course is that the illusion of calm financial probity and rock solid security had to be maintained AT ANY PRICE as the cost of not doing it would have triggered a full on financial China Syndrome. Anyone who doubts that need only look at the reaction of stock markets and trades when any slight tremor interrupts the game. They bail out like rats from a sinking ship, so much for their confidence or lack thereof. They'll lend an umbrella when it's sunny then demand it back (with interest) when it looks like it might rain.

The coming change of govt in 2009 will do NOTHING to halt the decline, because there is nothing they CAN do and any pretence to the contrary is just bulling so as not to frighten the children. If people really understood the scam of fractional reserve banking they would be stringing them from the street furniture.
We have a demographic timebomb waiting in the wings, land use issues that must be adressed NOW in order for the long term vialbility of this country to be assured in the medium term never mind the long term. Unfortunately the modern politico defines the concept of 'medium term' as no more than the time remaining till its next election. I doubt their definition of 'long term' encompasses even a generational span. Men of Vision?? Knobs of butter more like.

I have a bad feeling about this and if anyone else mentions the pointless and self indulgant sodding 2012 Olympics (panem et circenses) Bread and circuses - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia or the need for priority diversion of tax receipt to 'offset' Anthropogenic Global fricking Warming one more time I swear to God I will explode and rip them a fresh one.

 

[mpfisher@hotmai]

Nice light hearted read there Carter! Glad i'm goin on my jollies on Sunday

See y'all in a week

Mark

 

[Spudmiester]

Crikey Carter, are you Shakey in disguise.

Good point about tearing up and down the motorway doing jobs in each others back yards, have thought this situation ridiculous for about ten years, since I myself packed in doing it. Used to have to go from Yorkshire to the other side of Bournmouth to change a fuse or re-set an overload. I kid you not !

 

[mpfisher@hotmai]

where in yorks are you spud?

 

[sparkyork]

i was watching a program the other day about oil and very confusing it was indeed! from what the program told me was that there were still vasts ammounts of oil left in the north sea alone, they estimated at least another 40 years worth, plus what ever is in saudi and the like. they did also say that it costs them so much more to get it out the ground as well!? so if theres so much of it still left why is there all this who har about it all, and why do we need to pay over 75 percent tax on the bloody stuff, i say scrap or drstically lower tax on fuel, jib the nhs and do wat evry other country does and stop bailing out other countries when they have some sort of disaster, oh and also stop letting the foreigners in our country aswell, who come along for a free house.

 

[Carter]

i was watching a program the other day about oil and very confusing it was indeed! from what the program told me was that there were still vasts ammounts of oil left in the north sea alone...

There isn't, even industry insiders and CEOs are admitting that North sea production peaked around 2001-5. It's practically impossible to get a true picture because an oil company's long term stock value depends entirely on its stated reserves. It is in the company's interests to claim the maximum reserves they think they can get away with. How on earth do stated reserves stay the same and in some cases increase when there exploration results indicate so little actually recoverable oil found?

The same mechanism applies to oil producing countries as a whole; trading agreements mean that the amount they are allowed to trade on the market depends among lesser things on the stated level of that country's reserves. Same thing has happened, they grossly overstate their reserves in order to maximise their levels of trade. But it says precisely f*ck all about the true level of reserves which as I said is almost impossible to seperate out from 'theoretical reserves' or 'developing reserves' or 'newly discovered reserves'

so if theres so much of it still left why is there all this who har about it all, and why do we need to pay over 75 percent tax on the bloody stuff,

It's not so much the fact that oil is running out, (it will never actually "run out" as the production downslope will never actually hit zero until the last human has given up trying to extract it.) the issue is one of demand exceeding supply. Like I said in 1973 a difference between the two of only 6% practically tripled prices within a week.

Imagine 2 graphs, one a steadily rising line indicating world consumption of oil from when it was discovered through to the present and into the next 50yrs or so.

The other one is a smooth symetrical "bell shaped" plot. The low point on the left represents 1860 when the first Texan oil was produced, the peak of the graph represents the midpoint of reserves left and the right hand slope signifies the drop in production as it becomes harder to find.

Suppose the two plots (correctly scaled) are placed one on top of the other, so long as the production curve stays above the demand line all is hunky dory. But things aren't happening that way, the extraction curve cannot be manipulated as ultimately it is NOT A VARIABLE. Oil IS finite. The world population/oil demand IS a variable, the only problem is that it is varying inexorably upwards. It is growing and fancifully projected to keep growing ad infinitum. No upper limit is admitted. Sooner or later those two lines will cross and production will start to tail off and some say this is happening now i.e. we are at the peak of oil's historical production and use graph. From here it can only slope downwards and therefore it is inevitable that a deficiency of supply versus demand will arise. It is believed by many that we have or are about to reach that point when the lines start to diverge and THAT is the real crunch point, i.e. how will the market and wider society as a whole, react to that realisation. The current strains may be the start of that process of adjustment or merely the tremors preceding it and many quibble over the actual timing but unless you're one of those who believe oil is continually manufactured majicaly in the earth's core then it has to be faced up.

Personaly, I think the party's over and has been for a long time. It's been well concealed mind you behind a veneer of superficial affluence and ambitious sounding (but innefectually crap) policy designed to cover the cheapness of the political carcassing in this country.

I say scrap or drstically lower tax on fuel, jib the nhs and do wat evry other country does and stop bailing out other countries when they have some sort of disaster, oh and also stop letting the foreigners in our country aswell, who come along for a free house.

Simply put S.Y. but none the less sensible for it! I could run with that as a basis for a manifesto. Wouldn't it be a sweet relief if all politicians and particularly that waffling monocular ringpiece Gordy Brown was as succinct.

 

[sparkyork]

i think i start to get the picture now then, its basically getting to the point where we as a race and how we have evolved in to oil hungry peeps, needing it too much, and there's not enough of it to go around so it gets expensive, like you say utimately the price of oil could end up been finite. very worrying really by the sounds of it and given the information to hand, it looks like its set to get even more expensive until something gives and some other cheaper source is available, where there is shed loads of it too make the graphs more balanced.

so that programme i watched, maybe a month ago now, that funnly enough had BP doing some interviews etc, was probably some sort of propoganda tactic?

quite fritening that humans rely so heavily on oil, its like the start of our economic downfall!

what i dont get is if we are heading for a few problems cos of oil and ultimately its price then why doesnt this government seriously just cut the tax burden in this country so businesses and civil services, or whoever else needs it, so we can all try and fight this problem rather than it been made worse by the government

shame no one fancies doing a "guy fawkes"!

ps did you used to work in the oil trade by any chance? you seem very knowledgable on the subject?

 

[Carter]

i think i start to get the picture now then, its basically getting to the point where we as a race and how we have evolved in to oil hungry peeps, needing it too much, and there's not enough of it to go around so it gets expensive, like you say utimately the price of oil could end up been finite. very worrying really by the sounds of it and given the information to hand, it looks like its set to get even more expensive until something gives...

And the primary point of an elected 'elite' of the great and good is supposedly to protect the security of the nation by concentrating their 'great' minds on the threats that face said nation. It requires a modicum of foresight and the ability to forego expediency and defer self profit in the greater interest. I've been aware of the coming resource depletion for twenty odd years and I'm just an ordinatry member of the public.
So what excuse have the arseholes who are paid handsomely to investigate it full time have to offer for their total inability to predict it until the pump price tells what we are coming to work out for ourselves? I think we have a case for reclaiming their salaries on the grounds of obtaining money under false pretences. How about that to concentrate their great and good minds a little harder? Personally I think after 60yrs of post-war 'modern government' I reckon we've indulged these venal ----ers quite enough, they've fed themselves from our table long enough and would turn them out onto the streets to fend for themselves.

A facet of leadership is to recognise those areas that are about to "give" and reinforce them or circumvent them through perceptive and sound judgement and tactical ability. Not much of either in evidence that I can see.

...and some other cheaper source is available, where there is shed loads of it too make the graphs more balanced.

If only? I hear it a lot; "science will provide" or variations of "they'll think of something" Well they're cutting it damned fine. Fusion is 50yrs plus away if you believe the physicists who let's remember are punting for their share of the funding pie so aren't going to admit it's just a f*cking pipe dream.

Corn oil/ethanol/biomass? Don't work I'm afraid. In America this has been in place for 10yrs now and even with the refining capacity situated in the middle of the source of feedstock it still can't produce a conversion ratio better 1.3-1, meaning that it takes 1.3 units of input energy to produce 1unit of useable transport fuel. And to think I used to think nothing of razzing up motorways to jobs in a honking great 4.2 Jag??

Hydrogen? an incredibly difficult gas to transport and store without losing a great deal to leakage. It is the smallest molecule and therefore is very adept at working past and through any gasket/sealing medium. By the time it hits the back wheels of your £120,000 fuel cell vehicle the energy conversion efficiency has bottomed out at around 5%. Now that's not very green is it?
Oh yes, because of the power requirement for elecrolytic cracking of H2 most of it is currently made from ammonia derived from gas which is totally self negating as it's using even more fossil reserves in its making. So that's that option knackered. If it was going to be a serious option the infrastructure would have needed to have been planned 15yrs ago for nationwide deployment now! Too little, too late and just plain irrelevant govt. tokenism now.

so that programme i watched, maybe a month ago now, that funnly enough had BP doing some interviews etc, was probably some sort of propoganda tactic?

Almost certainly, can y' remember what it was called? sometimes I can find transcripts or archived footage on t'interweb.

quite fritening that humans rely so heavily on oil, its like the start of our economic downfall!

Yep. what's truly frightening is our lack of response I know the English don't like to cause a fuss but seriously people it's like the country's on moggadon or something?

what i dont get is if we are heading for a few problems cos of oil and ultimately its price then why doesnt this government seriously just cut the tax burden in this country

Because it is seriously in debt and sees no way back without admitting that its performance post-war has been completely wrong. The govt, the banks, industry, media and the 'public' are locked in a arm-linked centrifuge from which it would be impossible to break free without being flung out of the societal norm. Peeps fear that and so continue to cling on for dear life rather than take a risk.

so businesses and civil services, or whoever else needs it,

Y'see that's another one I hear a lot, "the needs of business." All must be subservient to the fabled and sacrosanct needs of business. Now don't get me wrong hear I've run a business and understand what it's about but I want to blow this out of the water right now, business does not NEED anything, business(men) want NOT need.
As for the civil service I am of the opinion that they too have a case to answer. There are 4 ways of going about procuring an item or service...

(i) You buy something, for yourself, with your own money;
in which case one is motivated to get the best quality you can afford and have a care about how long it lasts and how ultimately useful it will be to you.

(ii) You buy something for somebody else with your own money.
in which case you don't care so much about the quality so long as it'll do the job but you still care about how much it's going to cost you.

(iii) You buy something for yourself with someone else's money
in which case you go for the very best and dont care how much it costs as you're not paying.

(iv) You buy something for somebody else with their money
in which case you don't give a stuff about the quality of what you provide and niether do you give much regard to the cost. This is the status quo at the moment re govt service provision and the army of wonks who service and administer it. The worst of all cases in my view.

shame no one fancies doing a "guy fawkes"!

They do, that's why they imposed a 1000 yard 'exclusion' zone around OUR houses of parliament. Ha! they just don't get this democracy/free speech thing do they. Now tell me again we live in a free country.

ps did you used to work in the oil trade by any chance? you seem very knowledgable on the subject?

No, but am considering doing ROV Pilot trng @£8k for the course. I don't believe a word that issues from govt now. They simply have no credibility, I just refuse point blank to bull****ted any longer and can now smell it before it hits the ground. I research, read, double check and re-read.

Where'er you hide the truth, e'en in your hearts, then there shall Carter rake for it......Will Shakey

 

[wattsup]

I'm getting a lot of genny enquiries right now from some very wealthy people, a lot are just tyre kickers, my website is 90% genny stuff enquiry, but i'm sure a lot of people with cash to spare are thinking serious backup stuff.

I have done nothing else for the last few months. Ordinary people will put the new kitchen on hold, where the truely rich guys are making sure they get power no matter what.

If we have a bad winter this year, the supply is dubious to say the least. We are on 90% capacity already...I am sure there will be major probs ahead, the government as always will blame others when it happens. They will blame Russia and others for 'prices' but they set themselves up for balackmail...oh dear this country is in deep **** in years to come, no coal, no gas...

As a footnote, the latest little job I did, ..50 houses were without power last year (i'm talking 600k+ houses btw) in a little hamlet in lincs, last year *which was not a particularly bad winter last year, had several outages, the worst lasted 5 days. But there were several lasted 36 hours.

One customer of mine asked is that acceptable, of course it certainly is not, you should sue them...she said we are doing so, can I call on you if need be in court...yeah no probs (obvious answer) If it happens no doubt the leccy company lawyers will take me appart.

But hey, this is the uk is it not? You would think they lived in some third world country. They have lobbied mp's etc, but of course no votes in it so they don't bother.
You would think they lived in the deep south usa, it aint good enough, it don't get publicised, because the bottom line is, keep big towns and cities running, the rest can wait, no mp's give a ****..no votes in it.

I'm absolutely certain it will hit towns and cities soon enough. It is a time bomb waiting to go off. The latest price hikes are a con, it is simply conscrewed to make you use less power because the friggin lid will blow if a bad winter and national overload occurs. It is nothing to do with fuel prices, all fuel is priced within a 10 year threashold and averaged. Power prices have risen because the grid cannot cope with expected demand this winter, this has a knock on effect through gas supplies etc.

I'm not fully paranoid yet ') but I know this government do not tell you the whole story

 

[Carter]

I'm getting a lot of genny enquiries right now from some very wealthy people, a lot are just tyre kickers, my website is 90% genny stuff enquiry, but i'm sure a lot of people with cash to spare are thinking serious backup stuff.

Well alongside that I hope they have arranged their own supply contracts and bulk storage facility which are both secure and defensible.

I have done nothing else for the last few months. Ordinary people will put the new kitchen on hold, where the truely rich guys are making sure they get power no matter what.

Ordinary people will be at the back of the ration queue behind the armed services, and the police. Next in the pecking order will come haulage/transport and water service providers then local government who will further control downstream allocations to hospitals, schools, fire service, ambulance services possibly taxis and their own offices of course. I doubt there will be allowance made for bi-annual visits to one's timeshare just outside Benalmadena.

...We are on 90% capacity already...I am sure there will be major probs ahead,

Yes I've heard this. Are you in the HV supply and distribution field? Do you know if there is a program of capacity building in the distribution infrastructure or are they on a 'replacement only' regime. If no new capacity is being built even though the populatiuon/demand is rising then that suggests to me that they know and implicitly admit that there will be less and less to distribute. If that's the case why aren't they saying that? Just tell us the truth fer f's sake, we're adults, we can take it. What helps no-one is a government paralysed by inaction and fear trying to hide something behind its back like a schoolkid trying to hide his smokes whilst simultaneously professing to 'know what's required'. Well if peeps are still falling for this schoolyard trick then they deserve what's been planned for them.

...the government as always will blame others when it happens. They will blame Russia and others for 'prices' but they set themselves up for balackmail...

Oh we can be sure of that! "We were just following policy that you voted for" but in a way they would have a valid point (although it would still be no defence for their monumental incompetence.) This isn't a private business going down the tubes here, this is a whole nation we're talking about. We DON'T have another UK Mk2 that they've stashed somewhere up a fjord in case this one gets trashed do we?

oh dear this country is in deep **** in years to come, no coal, no gas...

'twould appear so.

no doubt the leccy company lawyers will take me appart.

I wouldn't be so sure as they are under legal obligations regarding continuity of supply aren't they. Download the duties on suppliers or whatever it's titled (maybe OFGEN site) go over it with a fine toothed comb, see what it says. Knowledge is power.

But hey, this is the uk is it not? You would think they lived in some third world country.

I'll give it a few years yet, we won't be the indigenous minority until around 2055-60, once that rubicon is reached all bets are off as we see whether our culture and society is deemed worth saving.

They have lobbied mp's etc....

bwaaaaaahhh ha ha ha ha ha

but of course no votes in it so they don't bother.
You would think they lived in the deep south usa, it aint good enough, it don't get publicised, because the bottom line is, keep big towns and cities running, the rest can wait, no mp's give a ****..no votes in it.

so let's whip them naked into the streets, strap them in Ebola soaked razor wire and drag them out of town three at a time? I'd chip in for the fuel. how much do you want?

I'm absolutely certain it will hit towns and cities soon enough. It is a time bomb waiting to go off. The latest price hikes are a con, it is simply conscrewed to make you use less power because the friggin lid will blow if a bad winter and national overload occurs. It is nothing to do with fuel prices, all fuel is priced within a 10 year threashold and averaged. Power prices have risen because the grid cannot cope with expected demand this winter, this has a knock on effect through gas supplies etc.

Interesting, and very likely to be a factor. A harsh winter this year will (regardless of the number of premature fatalities) be a valuable source of data to the government in their calculation to discern how far to push us. It's a bit like non-destructive shock testing. Send a (hopefully controlled) tremor into the economy/social structure of a nation and see what bounces back and hope that you don't knacker it in the testing process.

I'm not fully paranoid yet ') but I know this government do not tell you the whole story

You don't need to be paranoid to distrust these f*cks, their track record of failure after failure is so dismally exposed now that nothing save having spent the last 20yrs in a clinical coma would excuse anyone who doesn't see this now. It seems everything they touch turns to ratsh!t and if we're infested with rats what do we do? we set the terriers loose.

 

[wattsup]

Well I like your quips!
I think you take some of my points not serious.
I do know for an absolute fact some people are making provisions for diesel storage, some are crazy guys, some are ordinary 'wealthy people'. I'm not talking grand scales, but the latest genset I installed, the guy has 200 gallons hidden away and he his what would be considered a normal type person, with yes a country house, but not a nutter. Diesel will not store over 24 months, it goes 'off' when I explained he knew, he told me how to make it last longer, he told me how to add stuff to make it last longer, if all else fails put it in the land rover and re stock!

You may think 'what a friggin nutter' but this guy and many of the same ilk are not, they know whats comming. For city dwellers it may seem far fetched but some of these guys are well savvy, often they are the first affected.

Leccy companies legal obligations, well if you believe that no use debating. It is an an easy get out for them.

Sure, public services will be the high end except you don't know what I've got already stored. In high end country houses they will not bother (the authorities that is)
Yes I have been involved in hv distribution, the problems arrising are lack of investment, maintainence etc. Cables are crumbling around many sub-stations throughout the country. When one breaks (if a biggie) a knock on effect can cause major probs for huge areas, if two break big **** for whole counties,(which will happen because of extra draw on already dodgy cable) which then puts a strain on others if they go, then absolute chaos, it will happen. Then get part p guys to fault find the ring main-- If me, just walk away...cannot diagnose fault, did not install -

And Then the Government will Announce
All cable must do as we say or else they will not be allowed to operate...and on top of that all this dodgy cable was installed under the tory government..it is not our fault, in fact we are going to make sure it doesn't happen again, we are going to have a minister for cable ...----ers

On top, anyone seen looking at a cable (who has not paid the government looking fee of £2000) will be fined £55.00.
All electricians must be able to spell amp, otherwise a further 50 quid fine will be made. (however the spelling exam will be multiple choice, 40% success is acceptable)

Jackie Smith, the minister for bull **** will oversee all exams (even though she couldn't pass a bus stop) but she is extremely streetwise, only the other day she knew how to install a battery in an overloaded dildo... Hence she is the new minister of sparks