DECC launch FIT review

[TedM]

[edited]
Looking at the DECC figures they are using a reference 3kWp system costing £4890 and with 45% self-consumption. DECC have changed the load factor modeling and are now using the Midlands and not the South-West for load factor for PV and also accounting for panel degradation over 20 years. So I think that results in the figure for kWh/kWp being 946.

2838 x 4.39p = £124.59
2838 x 50% x 4.85p = £68.82
2838 x 45% x 13p = £166.02

total £359.43

which is a 13.6 years for break-even.

Not sure how many people would be interested in a 13 year break-even. I don't think I would be.

I've excluded opex from that for simplicity, but including it only pushes the break-even date out further. Including RPI would start to bring it down but is so small at the moment that it wouldn't have much effect.

 

[Gavin A]

the one good point about the consultation was that the cost assumptions weren't stupid.

 

[The Solar King]

To make it work up here based on 850kW/kWp on a 4kW system, price needs to be £4500.00 to give a 15 year payback. This is using a full DCF with self use calculated out at around 37%. Investment yield is around 7%.

 

[The Solar King]

Real problem for commercial roof tops is lack of capacity. Other worry on capacity in 0-10kw band is social housing hoovering up the volume leaving nothing left for anyone else.

 

[Gavin A]

other problem for commercial is the EPC D requirement not including the PV.

 

[SolarCity]

"In my view this should be a wakeup call for the industry to start working on business models where we don’t rely on subsidies any longer."

This was the response from BPVA. What a poxy organisation they are. How do they suppose I respond to this wake up call? Work without scaffold? Tell my employees to work for free? Persuade suppliers to offer me free materials.

 

[Worcester]

"In my view this should be a wakeup call for the industry to start working on business models where we don’t rely on subsidies any longer."

This was the response from BPVA. What a poxy organisation they are. How do they suppose I respond to this wake up call? Work without scaffold? Tell my employees to work for free? Persuade suppliers to offer me free materials.

We're back to big business again, - it goes back to my post (seems like forever ago, was probably yesterday ) about the drivers.

Government will hit the big consumers harder and force them to invest in renewables - like the 2MW Bentley rooftop. BPVA will be pushing the massive installations carried out by a very few companies that use cheap subcontract overseas labour rather that the thousands (still 2653) MCS Solar PV installers that exist in the <50 kW market place and I'll bet 95% of those are in the <10kW

The BPVA is only interested in working with big business, and that model with the carbon penalties that will come to the big consumers will install PV / wind etc even without subsidies - they'll have no choice.

The BPVA was only feathering it's own nest to ingratiate itself with Government, it doesn't care a **** about the FiT market place. It's comments were very calculated.

 

[SibertSolar]

Spot on Gordon....

 

[Worcester]

Here's the official document:
The Feed-in Tariffs (Amendment) (No. 3) Order 2015
The Feed-in Tariffs (Amendment) (No. 3) Order 2015

 

[TedM]

Which I see was laid before Parliament today (when Parliament is not sitting) rather than yesterday.

Also I see:

Part 3 (accreditation and matters relating to accreditation)

4. For article 4 (application of this Chapter) substitute—

“4.—(1) This Chapter applies where an application has been made which meets the conditions in paragraph (2) or (3).

(3) The conditions in this paragraph are that—

(a)an application has been made to a FIT licensee for FIT payments for an eligible installation which uses an MCS-FIT technology;

(b)the FIT licensee has submitted details of the installation to the Authority for accreditation under the process for MCS-certified registration; and

(c)not less than two weeks have passed since the date on which the installation’s MCS certificate was issued.”.

So after the installation the new owner has to wait 2 weeks before being able to apply for a FiT contract (or it has to sit in a supplier's in-tray for 2 weeks) and they have to wait for the supplier to lodge it on OFGEM's database.

 

[Worcester]

Which I see was laid before Parliament today (when Parliament is not sitting) rather than yesterday.
Also I see:
So after the installation the new owner has to wait 2 weeks before being able to apply for a FiT contract (or it has to sit in a supplier's in-tray for 2 weeks) and they have to wait for the supplier to lodge it on OFGEM's database.

Meaning the cut off date is effectively two weeks earlier.. so tariff drop on 1st April, means system has to have been commissioned at least 14 days earlier (17th March latest)
.
Interesting it refers to "the date on which the installation’s MCS certificate was issued" and not the commissioning date - yet ANOTHER time date trap to fall into.

Have they added these dates as definitions What if the MCS database is down? They have already threatened to close it for a period in March to cope all the changes need for the new ErP regs.

I suppose it stops some not so scrupulous installers from registering the systems in the last 4-14 days before a drop and predating the commissioning; you can register a system on the MCS database up to 10 days after commissioning.

 

[TedM]

Still trying to get to the bottom of some of the changes that have been sneaked in.

But it looks like the deployment quarter that sets the tariff for the subsequent quarter is now abutted directly to those 3 months instead of having the 2 month gap we have at the moment. OFGEM have to publish the new rates for a tariff period within the first 5 working days of that period.

So until those new rates are published you are not going to know exactly what the tariff will be.

 

[solarsavings]

I wonder what RECC's guidance on selling this new feed in tariff arrangement is going to be.

 

[Worcester]

That'll be one of the reasons for the two week processing time / delay.... effectively gives them 3 weeks to get the data together.

Depends whether Ofgem use the MCS database or FiT database for their calcs. Probably the MCS database because any MCS registered system, even if they don't immediately, could apply for it at a later date.

TedM a good one for you:

The new QUARTERLY caps are set at the average MONTHLY installation rate acheived between January and July last year (2015), so that's cutting it by 2/3rds..

What happens if either the quarters deployment , or two quarters worth is registered / logged during a pause? Will people have to wait 6 months to see if they get anything?

---------
DECC have assumed an average installation size of 3.15kWp (MW / # of Installations)

Anyone done the math yet on the cheapest (non MCS compliant) 3kW system that you can install, and say in 18 months time you can add storage in, does it add up without FiT?

 

[solarsavings]

Can they force us to only install mcs compliant kit?