DECC launch FIT review

[Gavin A]

Worcester, agreed.

That's where the petitions come in, partly, also the facebook, social media work.... and my meeting with Green Party energy spokesperson at the weekend - not only do we have an MP, we also have 60,000 members looking for a campaign to really get their teeth into, and just elected a new GP executive, so they'll be looking to make their mark too. I'll also be proposing this as an ongoing campaign for the Green memes committee to be working on / releasing via our social media, and hopefully that can get crossed over onto the main GP social media sites.

But the hearts and minds thing requires key messaging to be worked out, stuff like homeowners getting paid less for the electricity they export than nuclear has been promised, missing the 2020 renewable targets, and the actual net loss of tax revenue to the government from this decision - all make good hooks around which campaign messaging can be built.

 

[whinmoor]

Is there anything usable in this:

Hinkley Point nuclear plant delayed, says EDF - BBC News

How many panels could a thriving PV industry fit by 2023 and how much would it cost? Considerably less than £24.5bn!

 

[Gavin A]

I think counterposing the success and cost reductions of PV with the endless delays and cost increases of nuclear should be a key strategy in terms of opening up of political space.

The budgets set aside for nuclear in the contracts for difference scheme are massive, and there wasn't an open tendering process to bid for those CFD between all the sectors (as far as I can remember).

 

[The Solar King]

Same thing as I posted before but as a jpeg. Already been used to demonstrate to an MP that the problem is not FITs. There is no detail given in the consultation as to what is included in CfDs. Their growth is shown as rapid. Have they been naughty and included CCS in anticipation of it happening? (highly unlikely it will ever happen). Is this just the programmes they accredited without auction such as Drax and some offshore wind where the costs are running away?

The problem is clearly not FITs, but they are planning to trash it anyway.

twitter hashtag for this kind of stuff #DECCdodgydossier #FITS #Solar

 

[The Solar King]

Even the BPVA are having a hissy fit. This from an organisation very supportive of the Tory Government with Greg Barker as their president.

Government plan on solar subsidy cuts 'ignored job losses' | Environment | The Guardian

 

[TedM]

Playing around with the graphs doesn't change the fundamental, underlying data unfortunately.

In 2010 DECC forecast that FiTs would cost £446 million in 2014/15 - the actual cost was over £886 million - very nearly double. Future costs are now predicted to be £1.2 billion a year without intervention. By comparison ROC actuals have been tracking their forecast figures quite closely.

I guess that the predicted CfD figures come from DECC's model that includes a pipeline of future projects coming online, split by technology type (as are the CfD 'bins') and, of course, that DECC controls the CfD draft strike prices and capacity limits and 2020 targets.

So, from DECC's point of view, FiTs has been much more costly than predicted and is a major part of the problem of exceeding the LCF budget.

 

[SibertSolar]

See this?

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/amber-rudd-mp-saying-she-doesnt-care-thousands-people-graham-wall

 

[SibertSolar]

Crunching the numbers is about the only recourse for hope that sensible degression can continue, it seems

 

[TedM]

I think this is the IMF fossil fuel subsidy report that was referred to - https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp15105.pdf

 

[The Solar King]

Ted
Whilst you may be correct, when dealing with politicians, especially MPs, they don't deal with the detail. They simply do not have the time. The analysis from DECC is totally flawed. Politics is a game. Go out and play by their rules.

 

[whinmoor]

If it's all about politics, here's Obama in Alaska showing concern at the effect of climate change. Imagine his conversation with Cameron: https://www.whitehouse.gov/share/west-wing-week

Obama: Hey Dave, I went up to Alaska last month and saw a glacier that has retreated 1.5 miles due to climate change. What are you doing about this huge problem?

Dave: Well, I'm cutting 90% of the staff from our Department of Energy and Climate Change and solar subsidies by 87%. That should save a couple of quid a year on household energy bills. Then we'll get the Chinese in to build us a really expensive nuclear power station and we'll frack our beautiful countryside, pollute our groundwater and cause minor earthquakes.

Obama: Oh - you're going look like a real leader in Paris...

 

[The Solar King]

One thing to bear in mind is that the vast majority of RO and CfD are not solar. A very large chunk of FITs is.

We end up getting burnt because of costs of much higher than expected load factors for wind. Remember the figures shown should include the closure of ROs to wind and solar. We also get burnt because CfDs are predicated on a continual rise in wholesale electricity costs to a point above the strike price. Falls in wholesale prices make the CfD contracts more expensive.

 

[Gavin A]

Falls in wholesale prices make the CfD contracts more expensive.

yes, but they have the opposite impact on energy bills, so the net impact on consumes should be zero of any rise or fall in energy price in relation to CFD.

Do you or anyone know how this has been factored in to the calculations?

 

[The Solar King]

Although effect on bills is neutral, amount paid out from LCF rises.

 

[Gavin A]

Although effect on bills is neutral, amount paid out from LCF rises.

I know, but the political justification for these cuts is the impact on the bills, so.....

Also, anecdotally, I have a mate who works in the control room of one of the big coal power stations who was saying that daytime solar generation was having a signficant downward impact on the wholesale price of day time electricity (and was actually one of the key factors in their owners decision to close the plant).

I'd think that some further research on that area could produce a potent political weapon to attack the justification for these cuts.