Should have been having our panels fitted TODAY! Oh dear!! :o(

[moggy1968]

it's something we would all do well to remember in all this, it's not life or death.
Keep calm and carry on!!

 

[SolarCity]

Absolutely. The time to start worrying is Friday evening when we will all be scratching around for work.

 

[FB.]

I'm obviously still worried about all this... if I miss out on the 21p FIT then that's another attempt at an "investment" down the drain!... Will I ever learn? C'est la vie!

By my estimates, even a 21p FiT is adequate - it's just the way the government moved the goalposts suddenly which stinks.

By a rough estimate (which has been subject to considerable heated debate on here) I would say that 43p FiT will amount to around RPI+6% return and the 21p FiT to around RPI+3% return - if we use depreciation each year to deduct 1/25th of the value of the array, since it will not be re-saleable, unlike a bank account where yu can pull the money at any time.
If RPI inflation runs at the government target of 3%, then that's 6% p.a. with 21p FiT for 25 years. It's 9% p.a. with 43p FiT.
In this world of low returns, they aren't bad, given the risk you'd have to run to attempt to get that level of return elsewhere (such as stockmarkets or property markets).

In fact, the more I look at my own generation statistics and those of others, the more I reckon that the current generation of solar installations appear, on average, to be outperforming by around 30% relative to the government SAP calculations which must be supplied by the installer, and can be looked up on various databases.

In which case, if the outperformance continues (and I don't think the weather has been unusually favourable) then the outperformance actually makes the 21p FiT more like a 28p FiT equivalent and bumps up the likely annual "investment" returns by an additional 1% per year, each year, for 25yrs - giving an effective; to RPI+4% return for the 21p FiT and RPI+7.5% for the 43p FiT.

 

[moggy1968]

certainly 20-30% over estimate accords with what we are finding on our installs down here on the south coast.

 

[FB.]

certainly 20-30% over estimate accords with what we are finding on our installs down here on the south coast.

Hmmm.... so it's probably correct that 25% outperformance of the government SAP figures is quite likely.

Based on that outperformance, I'd expect annual returns to average the following, at various FiT rates, assuming:
SouthEast or SouthWest system.
3.7kWp
Installation cost of £10000
Allowing an annual 1/25th depreciation charge to reflect the fact that, unlike pulling money out of a bank account, the array can't be sold to get your money back.
One-third of power generated is used in the home and reduces electricity bills, with a retail electricity price around 15p per kWh (similar to that charged in the last year or so).
One-half of the power generated earns the 3p per kWh payment from the utility company to which it is sold.
It also assumes that electricity bills rise in line with RPI. Some disagree with this, in which case the benefits would be even higher if electricity prices continue to go up faster than RPI.

43p FiT = RPI+7%
21p FiT = RPI+4.5%
16p FiT = RPI+3%


Substitute RPI for whatever figure you think inflation will be.

If the Bank of England manage to keep inflation at their so-called target of 3%, investment returns of RPI(3) + 3% = 6% per year from a 16p FiT is not too shabby.
If RPI inflation continues at the 5% level seen during 2011, that makes a most-likely outcome of 8% annual returns from as little as a 16p FiT........or you can take your chances for (maybe) a similar long-term return in the stockmarket or property market.

So, actually, I think that once the potential customers have finished sulking that the FiT for new installations is less than their neighbour got, solar PV still looks viable - offering very acceptable investment returns, although not as generous as previously.

 

[fiardor]

I got the impression that, being a Saturday, they were hoping for a short day! Hahahahah!!!

... to be continued...

I have read this thread from start to finish and i appreciate you have been let down but i find some of your posts comments and musings rude sarcastic and at times offensive.

A 70 hour week? 24 hour call out stand by?

Pffft try a 120 hours for 7 weeks and see how you would function.

Outside of this issue on any given day i would imagine you would be a real joy to be around.

I have been up since 4.30 am to drive to Reading to instal a complete system and then drive back.

Just got home 15 minutes ago and then i read your comments it makes me a more than a little agitated.

I will probaly regret this post tomorrow when i have had a kip but for now i stand by my opinion of you and your demeanour.

 

[fiardor]

Yes, I did wonder if someone might comment about that... But then, I wouldn't get too upset about it... after all you can buy these panels on Ebay from (presumably) wholesalers for the same price! Really!!

zzzzzzzzz

 

[fiardor]

I'm not


I will be up there inspecting everything as they go!

Not once they have left but as they go.

Why not make them wait while you peruse and scrutinise?

 

[GaryM]

Pffft try a 120 hours for 7 weeks and see how you would function.

Just over 17hrs a day for 49 straight days? Is that even humanly possible?

 

[fiardor]

I am aware. The PV industry don't hold a monopoly on lack of days off. I install, support and maintain X-Ray equipment in hospitals. I'm on 24-hr standby every other week and rarely see a sub-70 hour week, often much more.
If I drop the ball, people might die. A&E might have to close.
I'm just saying.

We never asked for sympathy just a little understanding and what we get is this.

Thanks.

Grrrr

 

[fiardor]

Just over 17hrs a day for 49 straight days? Is that even humanly possible?

Fraid so Gary.

Pay is good though LOL

 

[GaryM]

I'd be happy with your deductions! lol

 

[fiardor]

My deduction is this Gary............

Never ever again........

Hang on that was my deduction in December. Will i ever learn :banghead: LOL

 

[moggy1968]

the fact your working yourself into an early grave isn't the customers, or the posters fault.

 

[fiardor]

the fact your working yourself into an early grave isn't the customers, or the posters fault.

Eh?

I dont actually remember aportioning blame/fault to customers or posters mogs.

But if someone pokes me in the chest i poke back.

If someone pokes someone i know in the chest and i see it, guess what? i poke back.

If someone pokes someone in the chest i dont know and i see it, yep you guessed it.

But if i was to blame anyone moggy it would be entirely myself for working so hard for little thanks or gratitude.