Tier 4

[Midwest]

So sorry for your loss Strima. That is really sad. But I'm also glad you can still take an objective view of it, unlike so many. Of course some are dying. Maybe even slightly more than from regular flu. But it's a sliding scale - where on that scale do we decide suddenly that we have to shut everything down? How can we ignore the people dying from starvation in developing countries because their income from tourism has been cut off? Or those in this country dying because their operations were cancelled when the NHS was changed to the National Covid Service? Or those committing suicide because they have lost everything and see no way forward? Or those trapped indoors with domestic abusers? Or those who face decades of poverty because they have lost jobs or businesses? And I will never believe that the government has the prerogative to impose all this on people, especially when there are so many experts saying the cure is far, far worse than the illness. Why couldn't they just encourage and support those who were vulnerable to (voluntarily) self-isolate?

I haven't looked at the figures recently, or discussed this argument much. And I have no medical background to throw into this discussion.

However, I read somewhere back in the beginning, that on an average flu year, we have around 7000ish flu related deaths. In a bad year, it can be as much as 20,000-30,000ish.

The UK has figures for Covid at around 70,000. Thats with us being in lockdowns and other restrictions, that doesn't happen in a flu season. So it does look at Covid being something more dangerous than flu, IMO.

 

[Selfmade]

But it's not just the government. The opposition mostly agree, as do the devolved UK territories. And as do most other countries. Not sure why you concentrate on it being something the Tory government is doing.

Just to clarify - I mean state by government in this instance - to include civil service and whoever is pulling the strings - not government in a party politics sense.

 

[Selfmade]

I haven't looked at the figures recently, or discussed this argument much. And I have no medical background to throw into this discussion.

However, I read somewhere back in the beginning, that on an average flu year, we have around 7000ish flu related deaths. In a bad year, it can be as much as 20,000-30,000ish.

The UK has figures for Covid at around 70,000. Thats with us being in lockdowns and other restrictions, that doesn't happen in a flu season. So it does look at Covid being something more dangerous than flu, IMO.

But there are so many problems with these figures. For example, anyone who was admitted to hospital and tested positive and then died was put down as a covid death - even if they died from a heart attack or injuries sustained in a car accident. And it seems no-one is dying from flu this year. Why is that? Put down as covid deaths, that's why.

 

[plugsandsparks]

I think the stats are largely irrelevant, we have a fixed capacity of ICU beds and ICU nurses. It does not matter what illness brings a patient to an ICU bed. Covid means a proportion who catch it need hospital treatment and a smaller proportion need ICU, i don't believe this is a disputed fact.

Once we run out of ICU beds / nurses... whats the plan for those who dont agree with the government's approach ? Just shrug shoulders and let them die ??

I do find this a really strange discussion but i guess everyone is free to give an opinion.

 

[DPG]

So, do I listen to the vast majority of medical experts of many different countries, or do I listen to some random people who seem to think they know better for some reason?

Maybe I should start listening to Piers Corbyn and his anti mask protest meetings? Maybe I should listen to a minority of people who seem to think this is all an government plan to control us?

Mmm, let me think.

 

[Midwest]

But there are so many problems with these figures. For example, anyone who was admitted to hospital and tested positive and then died was put down as a covid death - even if they died from a heart attack or injuries sustained in a car accident. And it seems no-one is dying from flu this year. Why is that? Put down as covid deaths, that's why.

Same could be said for any stats; Covid is way above anything we currently had before,

 

[Selfmade]

I think the stats are largely irrelevant, we have a fixed capacity of ICU beds and ICU nurses. It does not matter what illness brings a patient to an ICU bed. Covid means a proportion who catch it need hospital treatment and a smaller proportion need ICU, i don't believe this is a disputed fact.

Once we run out of ICU beds / nurses... whats the plan for those who dont agree with the government's approach ? Just shrug shoulders and let them die ??

I do find this a really strange discussion but i guess everyone is free to give an opinion.

But this ignores all the videos of empty hospitals. And then there are the treatments suppressed to justify the emergency authorisation of a vaccination.

Oh, and it is refreshing to be allowed to give an opinion. In lots of other places doctors and scientists are having posts and videos deleted because the likes of G**gle, F*cebo*k etc., think they know more about health and medicine.

 

[Selfmade]

So, do I listen to the vast majority of medical experts of many different countries, or do I listen to some random people who seem to think they know better for some reason?

Maybe I should start listening to Piers Corbyn and his anti mask protest meetings? Maybe I should listen to a minority of people who seem to think this is all an government plan to control us?

Mmm, let me think.

I did point to a few experts disagreeing with the narrative earlier on. I'm sure there are many more. Who are the experts supporting it? Bill Gates? Neil Fergusson? Even WHO have backflipped and no longer support lockdowns. And what about asking a few economists how many people will die from the economic fallout from the lockdowns?

 

[Midwest]

But there are so many problems with these figures. For example, anyone who was admitted to hospital and tested positive and then died was put down as a covid death - even if they died from a heart attack or injuries sustained in a car accident. And it seems no-one is dying from flu this year. Why is that? Put down as covid deaths, that's why.

I have no reason to doubt that our health care professionals are recording things correctly, and will change recording deaths etc if the needs arise, and appears have done. It’s seems they have checks and balances in place. That said deciding on the cause of deaths, is sometimes not straight forward, depending on the illness of the persons in case.

I‘ve heard of the case of a car accident victims etc, and cause of death recorded as Covid, and other such cases. But where the media simplifies such examples, I suspect it’s more complicated.

Flu deaths 2019 - 20

Behind the headlines

I see no reason to doubt we are in the middle of a serious pandemic, which requires some demanding measures.

 

[UNG]

I did point to a few experts disagreeing with the narrative earlier on. I'm sure there are many more. Who are the experts supporting it? Bill Gates? Neil Fergusson? Even WHO have backflipped and no longer support lockdowns. And what about asking a few economists how many people will die from the economic fallout from the lockdowns?

The Covid argument is similar to what has been seen with climate change in recent years

We seem to have all of a sudden found a lot of experts on both sides operating in this sector and having an understanding of how this virus is spreading and mutating and how it should be tackled, we have also seen how different governments are trying to tackle the spread in different ways. Sweden was hailed as having the best response but even that is now being questioned as they have seen massive spikes in infections in recent weeks. Finding a definitive solution that works is nigh on impossible short of a massive lockdown where nothing moves for a month or more
The problem is that any response seems to be driven and / or tempered by finance / economic issues, WHO are not totally independent and rely on funding from governments so their responses can be influenced

Will we ever know who was right and who was wrong, will we ever return to what we had before is anyone's guess, will the vaccine be the great saviour that most of these experts think it is.

 

[littlespark]

If the vaccine is anything like the flu vaccine, then we may need to get it every year.... then as time passes, they’ll say only elderly or those with a health condition need it.

then again. I’m not a virologist... So I really don’t know if the Covid vaccine works the same as the the flu one.

has any expert tested the flu vaccine to see if it works against Covid in any way?

 

[Strima]

And it's just been announced we go from tier 2 to tier 4 on Boxing day... ?

Getting bored of this now.

 

[Midwest]

We're going into Tier 4 here in Oxfordshire as well on Boxing Day. Would of been a good excuse not to see the mother in law, if she was still alive ? (don't mean that!).

Had my first Covid jab today. Nurse was quite rude; said you'll feel a little ----- (brick spelt with a p. flippin forum censorship).

 

[Baddegg]

I personally didn’t know a single person who’d had a confirmed case until yesterday, I dont believe there’s a one size fits all government conspiracy, very por management and ineptitude from the start without a doubt with anyone in opposition political point scoring and scaremongering within the media (but what’s new there?) but you’d have to be nuts to believe certain individuals in government and big businesses arnt gonna use this situation to they advantage, I forget who said it first so I can’t quote but it is a shame common sense went out the window years ago in this country, and the irresponsible media reporting with glee on people that have found “loop holes” to have get togetherness is wholly irresponsible and reprehensible.....they should be using the position to shame these people.....why would you want to find a bloody loophole to a catching the virus? Regardless of anyone’s views on how easy it is to catch or how dangerous it is to have, facts are it exists......

 

[Baddegg]

And it's just been announced we go from tier 2 to tier 4 on Boxing day... ?

Getting bored of this now.

Ahhhhhh man that’s terrible....at least they had the decency to tier 4 me before Christmas so I got out of seeing the mother in law!.....to do after that is cruel!!

 

[Dustydazzler]

Odds on for the rest of England to be promoted to Tier 4 on new Year eve

 

[Strima]

Ahhhhhh man that’s terrible....at least they had the decency to tier 4 me before Christmas so I got out of seeing the mother in law!.....to do after that is cruel!!

She rocked up today to wish my wife happy birthday but she stayed in the car and made my missus stand in the rain, she's good like that... ?

 

[Zerax]

Just a quick 'bag of a smoke packet' calculation... but according to the NHS, in England we have 0.58 GPs per 1,000 patients... and it's a fair assumption that we have at least this number again of nursing staff (trained to give hypodermic injections) in GP practices... so;

If we want to vaccinate say 50% of the population... being enough to stop the virus propogating and protecting the most likely candidates for severe symptoms (fat and/or already very ill)... each GP/Nurse would need to vaccinate about 500 patients each... at say 5 mins per 'jab' x 2 'jabs' and if they worked 12 hrs per day (it's a pandemic after all) that would take them 500/6[patients per hour]/12[working 12 hrs a day]= 7 days

Assuming we have enough of the vaccine... this lockdown nonsense could be over in a week !!

Clearly I'm missing something with this calculation ??

 

[Zerax]

She rocked up today to wish my wife happy birthday but she stayed in the car and made my missus stand in the rain, she's good like that... ?

Maybe some sort of 'umbrella' would have been in order ?

 

[plugsandsparks]

Dunno, but i will have a go at working it out, i think the 5 mins is a bit optimistic, unless there is a separate admin part so you just pull your pants down and hey presto.

 

[Zerax]

Dunno, but i will have a go at working it out, i think the 5 mins is a bit optimistic, unless there is a separate admin part so you just pull your pants down and hey presto.

Good point...maybe get some volunteers to organise it instead ? What about the council staff that usually man the polling stations ? the NHS are certainly not famous for their efficiency... military personal to oversee ? There must be a way...

 

[Strima]

Maybe some sort of 'umbrella' would have been in order ?

We have several but she's a bit thick at times.

 

[Selfmade]

Impfstoffe macht frei

 

[loz2754]

Impfstoffe macht frei

We hope so

 

[James]

Dunno, but i will have a go at working it out, i think the 5 mins is a bit optimistic, unless there is a separate admin part so you just pull your pants down and hey presto.

My wife tested this theory last night, pulled her pants down and hey presto!
Still had 2 minutes left to put the kettle on.

I am not sure if I could repeat the procedure 500 times in a week though!!!

 

[snowhead]

Assuming we have enough of the vaccine... this lockdown nonsense could be over in a week !!

Clearly I'm missing something with this calculation ??

YES.
Vaccine is in limited supply.
The current batch being used was produced before it was approved for use.
They're already working on more batches, but remember most Countries pre ordered so as each country approves use of it the demand gets higher.

As the other vaccines come on stream the rate of vaccination will increase but is unlikely to get to more than 1 milion per week in the U.K.

There's an online calculator to work out when you might be offered the jab, it allows for age and conditions.
Mine comes out at end of Feb 2021

Vaccine Queue Calculator for the UK

The vaccine queue calculator for the UK estimates where you are in the queue to get your COVID vaccine based on your age, health, and job.

www.omnicalculator.com

 

[Zerax]

Interesting calculator... mine comes out at the end of June 2021... 1,000,000 vaccinations a week works out at 23 'jabs' per GP per week, which is ridiculously low. It must be to do with supply then...

 

[Baddegg]

Did that and I am approx 39 millionth in the queue, which is gonna be fluid at best as people die and develop illnesses they can’t be treated for in the current climate

 

[Zerax]

I think we just need to get enough people vaccinated so that the virus cannot spread like it does right now. I did read somewhere that if we had 10 million vaccinated... that would be enough to allow us to get back to normal life... but I have no idea on how that's been calculated.

Interesting figure from that calculator... take up rate assumed to be 70% ?? So 30% of people will refuse to have the vaccine ?? Seems surprisingly high to me...

 

[Baddegg]

Assuming the figures are correct and 30% of the population refuse the vaccine the social disturbances will be horrible as all the people that have had the virus may still find themselves in a tier 4 area assuming the the percentage of refusals are high enough in that area, or will be forced to carry some form of ID proving vaccination I presume, but that still won’t stop certain areas remaining in high tiers I suppose?

 

[Zerax]

I think it's the 'herd immunity' concept that's important... so by vaccinating enough people, in effect we are artificially creating herd immunity and the virus will then not be able to spread and naturally die out. So in an area with non-vaccinated people, they might catch the virus, but there are not enough non-vaccinated bodies to pass it on to.

 

[snowhead]

Interesting calculator... mine comes out at the end of June 2021... 1,000,000 vaccinations a week works out at 23 'jabs' per GP per week, which is ridiculously low. It must be to do with supply then...

It's supply and with the first Vaccine the supply of low temp freezers.

I had my Flu jab last week and my G.P hasn't been told they are going to be doing the Vaccine, other G.P's in the area have been told they are.
However it's directly across the road from 1 of 2 Hospitals in the City.

 

[DPG]

Let's just hope the vaccine does the trick. I'm getting sick of the vocal minority on Facebook, etc. who seem hell bent on promoting anti vaccine propaganda. FFS if you don't want it then don't have it, but don't keep banging on about it. The vast majority of people luckily are not like this.

 

[telectrix]

Let's just hope the vaccine does the trick. I'm getting sick of the vocal minority on Facebook, etc. who seem hell bent on promoting anti vaccine propaganda. FFS if you don't want it then don't have it, but don't keep banging on about it. The vast majority of people luckily are not like this.

if it's on faceache, it's usually bullsh*t and should be ignored. just some pillocks that are tired of slagging people off. nothing better to do.
tell you what, if covid don't get me , in 2026 I will be having a retirement party. i promised 'er indoors that I'd retire then at 80.

 

[Zerax]

if it's on faceache, it's usually bullsh*t and should be ignored. just some pillocks that are tired of slagging people off. nothing better to do.
tell you what, if covid don't get me , in 2026 I will be having a retirement party. i promised 'er indoors that I'd retire then at 80.

She might have left you by then Tel !

 

[telectrix]

She might have left you by then Tel !

never happen. she knows when she's got the best. anyway, she can't leave me. it's her bloody house. ?

 

[Ziggie]

I would take a bet, you dont know anybody that has had the virus or died from it.

Wrong - this morning one of my friends died from it. You lost the bet .

currently, 1 in 85 have the virus.

it’s the same odds of rolling 3 dice and getting 2 sixes and the third dice showing a 2 or 4 or 6. Get this and your in hospital and or dead. Roll the dice every time you meet someone ( within 2 meters )

do you want to play the game?

I take the view of Pascal’s wager.

if I wear a mask , etc and the virus does not exist , then no great loss (look silly etc)
If it does exist, then I have cut the odds of me suffering or someone else.

therfore, whether it exists or not is not relevant..... obey the rules anyway.

 

[Ziggie]

If you don’t believe , then do away with the blue book - how many people are we saving from electrocution versus the number who have died from Covid.

let’s state ( I really mean it - that the IET ) serves no useful purpose today.
There are more deaths from ovens than all other causes and there isn’t anything covering use of ovens in any of the manuals.
it’s just. a method of collecting £100 every couple of years

 

[MDJ]

I hope the Vaccine starts to work, this is a nightmare for anyone over 70 who gets it. I hope the government does not start another "eat out to help out" scheme too early, that was a major factor IMO why it came back so quick, the Lockdown was stopped and then millions mixing in cafes etc too soon after, Fingers crossed this year will see the Virus beaten