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According to this, should it be right I doubt a majority government will be formed, the tories cannot form one with UKIP, the lib dems and the DUP all together, I cannot see the labour party doing a deal with the lib dems, so it is a SNP/Labour pact or no majority for anyone.

Labour277
Conservatives
270
SNP50
Liberal Democrats27
Other19
Plaid Cymru3
Ukip3
Green Party1

[h=5]YouGov seat projection (April 27)[/h]
[h=5][/h]
 
According to this, should it be right I doubt a majority government will be formed, the tories cannot form one with UKIP, the lib dems and the DUP all together, I cannot see the labour party doing a deal with the lib dems, so it is a SNP/Labour pact or no majority for anyone.

Labour277
Conservatives270
SNP50
Liberal Democrats27
Other19
Plaid Cymru3
Ukip3
Green Party1
Rubbish poll pmsl.
 
Probably correct, it is out of a tory newspaper.

Who are the "other"

18 ni parties and who else.

Btw if it makes any odds i'll give you the ni poll

DUP/UUP 10
Sinn Féin 5
SDLP 3

The DUP would be likely to go to the tories.

The Shinners are abstentionist and won't take their seats but will take their wages and expenses.

And considering SDLP stands for social democrat and labour party, i doubt you will need it explained.
 
I believe this election will be quite interesting and will definitely be stopping up with a bottle of Malbec . The tv debates with greensm UKip , that welsh party etc and the general bashing of UKIP by all parties I think will generate a larger than average turn out and who knows,,, the polls could be well out this time. I really do hope UKIP do get a healthy no of seats (certainly more than the greens) as they do make you stop and think and british politics needs a large dose of it. Roll on.......







BTW - Vote Tory - the only hope....after Bob
 
The SNP are playing a very clever game imo. The Scots despise the Tories and with them in government again, the chances of another referendum and Yes vote from Scotland increases.

Nobody who wanted the English to vote labour would ever be stupid enough to taunt the electorate as much as the SNP are.
 
Why do you want to leave the EU? what would we benefit by leaving?
I don't think the Australian system works ''exceptionally well'' it has its problems, immigration is still a big issue over there during elections.
Labour are not saying the NHS will shutdown, where have you read that? they and other parties do point out the benefits of immigration to the NHS though. Hardly BS propaganda, just simple facts.
The problem here is the damage of uncontrolled open border policy was done on Labours watch and this isn't an opinion because Labour have twice apologised for it and expressed they got it wrong, that been said they are doing there best to duck the issue of immigration and when ever it is brought up it just bounces to a 'well I disagree and believe sorting out the NHS is the priority'... now got to agree the NHS is in a right mess and regardless how many times you say immigration holds the NHS up with doctors, nurses etc it the other 300+k coming in that is buckling it to its knees. It was in trouble before the downturn and the cuts and has been heading that way since the turn off the century when we saw massive rises in immigration.. its not just a theory because its reflected across several other none related public services all following the same trend.


Their manifesto costing is simplistic nonsense, they've just given a list of eye catching populist proposals like more money for the services & people leaving them, lower business rates, lower taxes for high earners, a higher personal allowance etc etc this they say will cost £32b which is what your independent source is confirming then UKIP have laid out £32b in savings £9b from leaving the EU, £11b cut in aid budget, £4b by not taking HS2 from the midlands to the north and £5b by scrapping the Barnett formula plus a few smaller savings.
This may impress you but I'm afraid it astounds me that anyone can swallow this nonsense.
There is no such thing as an independent think tank, they are all funded by someone. Labour have think tanks rubbishing Tory and others polices & the Tories have think tanks rubbishing Labour and others polices.

OK - If the Centre for Economic and Policy Research who list 80% of there doners 'mainly large companies of many backgrounds and views' is not worth respecting then Ill agree but unfortunately this is the same independent think tank that both Labour and Tories use and there history for been politically neutral and accurate proceeds them greatly, if anything in the past they have been accused of having a slight left bias but this was addressed with the nature of the questioned asked and not the policies of the doner companies. If a party are using some other independent think tank then I would be asking why and who funds them but the C.E.P.R . are totally open about a majority of there funding with only 20% remaining hidden for privacy reasons as these will be single investers and not big cooporates.



You have to decide what they want because their views change from one week to the next and the closer we get to the election the softer their stance on a lot of things. Immigration being one.
You've listened to them and decided they do not want to close the borders, I've listened to the same as you and I think they do. The only people the hard core Ukip members want are the ones with the same colour faces as themselves.

But we do have a biased left wing media and that's no secret at all, some of these shamed members are X-Labour and Tories with a history of making similar comments while in these other parties but it only ever seems to be big news if they do it while standing for UKIP...Your accustions of hard core UKIP been rife well Ukip has had a lot of growing up in the last few years, 10yrs ago I'd fully agree with you as it was what Ukip was about; a one policy party with no real threat. Regardless what you may recall of them the party has been restructured with a totally different stance from say even 5 yrs ago so has had a hard image to shake.. they now % of members have a more diverse set of members from all backgrounds than any other party and are no longer attracting the so called hardcore far-right members, big steps have been introduced to try ensure everyone is vetted before joining the party, now of course the odd nut seeps through the cracks and the media love it slating members for been far-right racists which is the old image that they deserved at the time I suggest you see there candidate members list as well as read there manifesto. Everything about it would no longer appeal to a racist hard right opinion as has been made clear.
No longer can you accuse them as a party of been racist or far right, they are nearer centre right now and have members and policies in place that put them well ahead of the other parties as a balanced diverse group from all backgrounds... the manifesto speech where Farage was asked at the end why there was only one black person in it was clear evidence of all the propaganda been thrown still at them.. luckily several UKIP candidates of all colours heckled him down shouting we are here!




Is our defense spending falling far short? as far as I'm aware we have the 5th highest defense spending in the world and it's over 2% of gdp.
My view is that we should scrap Trident, but keeping it is in all the main parties manifesto, not just Ukip.

We are a Nuclear power, to maintain a position we have in the world we have to retain the threat deterrent, you cannot just say no and scrap it all, we have Russia nudging our air space and a Russian sub got snagged on a fishing boat the other week, yes its just a test to see if we are still capable of reacting fast and nothing more but at a time like this I can't believe you want to withdraw our defense system....Iran is trying to get nuclear weapons, Isis are now very rich selling oil etc and getting millions we have turmoil throughtout the middle east and regardless of why these problems exist and whose to blame the world has never been so volatile since the cold war. How long before they try buy one? are you seriously telling me we don't need Trident because without them we cannot be an effective deterrent anymore. Sub's are a vital tool to any military power and play one of the leading roles.



This is mentioned every time that Farage has to apologies for one of his members or councillors making racist, sexist, homophobic or just plain stupid comments.
So obviously it get mentioned a lot.
Its only because the media jumps on it, most of these making the comments have been kicked straight out and a number of them are ex-Labour or Conservative, its almost like they transormed into racists or sexists when joining UKIP and that they never held these views or said anything while members of the main 2 parties..ohh wait! they did its just it wasn't big news.


It will cost if we leave the EU, fact, not left wing opinion. The EU will not trade with us in the free market place unless we sign up to their rules and they include the free movement of goods, services, capital and labour. Which as you and your mates abhor it plainly will not happen so the cost of doing business with the EU will increase.
We do business with the rest of the world now and it costs more than it costs to do the same in Europe.
Who do you think can get better trade deal, a country of 60 million people or a trade block of over 500m people?

Why won't they trade as a free market other european countries do without the ties to Brussels we have, this is what I don't get, the EU would lose out more than we would if they were to impose any trade levy's and taxes so I never really get that argument, also we get to trade with who we like in the world and here's a thing, if this free trade deal was the bee's knee's you make out how is it we do fine trading with other countries around the world with our own trade deals with them ...well the countries we have been allowed to trade with anyway. As for size 60million to 500million well sorry but size isn't everything, we have a strong history and the main economic finance centre of the world in London and have some very unique strategic angles...again the EU needs us more with them to get a better deal... considering the state of the EU and its economic climate which won't get better anytime soon they have not got a lot of leverage that you think, there are really only a few Key countries to which we are a very big part of which has this leverage, if we do drop out the biggest risk is the EU nosediving of the back of it and we losing trade ...the last thing they would do is try to pull our free trade deals.



If there was no benefit of membership you would be right.

We have already lost our voice at the table with the help of Cameron so this idea been in the EU allows us to debate and veto rules is out of the window, we have basically been politically gagged and new laws are been put through to stop a 1 member veto halting new legislation, I've followed EU politics for several yrs now and at present we have the least control over any of our own decisions than any time in the past and we no longer get a say at the table we are just invited for the vote for the count now ... so what benefit do we get that cannot be achieved if we are out of the EU and again I stress there are European Countries not tied in like we are and still doing fine and trading well, we would just become like them oh and be 33million better off a day, we give approx 55million a day then the rebates equate this down to 33million so we could still give these rebates ourself and be Kerching!to the tune of 33milion 'A DAY!' no one getting rebates would lose out.



We all have our opinion and you are welcome to yours. It would help your argument though if you didn't dress up an opposing opinion to yours as being selfish and attributing personnel vested interests. I can assure you that the only vested interest I have is that of being British and I am not a bigwig. I just happen to disagree with you.

Agree ...each to there own and your opinions are shaped by your experiences, my experiences are reflected by immigration and the problems locally we have a very large Polish community throughout the area and we have seen services buckling, schools full, housing issues all that didn't exist 10yrs - 15yrs but the flood of immigration post 1997 started to take effect. Up until 97 it was a steady 30k and everyone was happy and the services could cope easily then Labour opened the flood gates and here we are, its placing massive burdens in every sector of our community and I have seen it hands on and the damage thats mass uncontrolled EU immigration has done, as the only way to control our borders is to leave the EU it thus appeals to me, there will never be a deal about free movement while in the EU as the powers in Brussels have stated this clearly only 2 weeks ago.
So how do you repair the damage if you don't addressed the issue?

I'd also like a link to one of the non biased reports extolling the benefits of leaving the EU. I'm not saying they don't exist, I'd just like to see who the authors and backers are. Thanks.

I did check myself who costed UKIP's manifesto hence my response and why I used the point in the debate we are having here, but whether you watch BBC or channel four etc UKIP has had some very biased coverage to give them a negative image, more so than any other party but this is because what the have achieved even though we won't see them win masses of seats - well they have rocked politics and changed the face of it and got 2 main parties very uncomfortable indeed, that alone is a massive achievement from a background party only 5yrs ago.
 
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Who are the "other"

18 ni parties and who else.

Btw if it makes any odds i'll give you the ni poll

DUP/UUP 10
Sinn Féin 5
SDLP 3

The DUP would be likely to go to the tories.

The Shinners are abstentionist and won't take their seats but will take their wages and expenses.

And considering SDLP stands for social democrat and labour party, i doubt you will need it explained.
No idea fella.
 
I believe this election will be quite interesting and will definitely be stopping up with a bottle of Malbec . The tv debates with greensm UKip , that welsh party etc and the general bashing of UKIP by all parties I think will generate a larger than average turn out and who knows,,, the polls could be well out this time. I really do hope UKIP do get a healthy no of seats (certainly more than the greens) as they do make you stop and think and british politics needs a large dose of it. Roll on.......







BTW - Vote Tory - the only hope....after Bob
I do as well, it will shake up the other parties who are boring and taking the public for granted, a few but not too many is my hope.
 
What I want here is not a UKIP parliment as I feel they need to bed their new found feet but I want Farage to get Thanet South giving him a seat in parliment, on seeing the inpact he has had over the yrs in the European Parliment you can only respect the man for his defense of the UK and may I say a far more reflective true impression of who he his.. .unfortunately very few of the UK population even know what he does within the EU and how he supports our values and defends us by saying it as it is, its a media frenzy fuelled by biased mainstream media and attacks from all sides that has unsurprisingly seen them tagged with some kind of racist far right barmy party, get this man a seat in the British Parliment and he will turn many heads and rock many boats and will truely leave a big footprint on British politics.

If he wins Thanet South then I class that as a massive win from a Labour safe haven regardless of the rest of the seats they are after, he will be where he wanted to always be and that's having a voice within the British Parliment where he will be heard.

As it stands at the moment he is making an impact in the European parliment but not been heard over here, if this goes to plan he will be heard boths sides of the border and support likenhe has within the EU will surely follow.

When the Brussels machine was implementing massive restrictions on the UK like fishing quoters etc non or the resident parties stood up for our country yet this man was sticking it right in the jugular, loads have lost their livelyhoods because of EU sanctions and only one person has the balls to stand up and now with the internet been so easy to use and come by they are catching up on what this man has done for us.

Just to make my point how many people saw this all over the news... you probably didn't because it wasn't and at most the Mirror may have run it, if it was a UKIP candidate you would have it all over the media by now http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/04/26/ed-miliband-gulzabeen-afsar_n_7146376.html?utm_hp_ref=tw
 
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