There are people talking about the number of excess deaths - i.e. the difference between numbers dying now, and what the normal range of deaths would be expected to be for the time of year. Last number I read was something in the order of 10k excess so far.I do not think there is any clear and unambiguous analysis of the 30k deaths.
But yes, it's "really complicated" (for one thing, the normal range is quite wide over a number of years) - and we won't know for quite a while what the reality is. How many of those dying now would have died in the near future anyway ? And if the answer to that is "quite a few", what is "near future" ?
We'll only know the answers in a few years time, when we can retrospectively look at the figures and see if we get a dip in the death rate later on, and how deep and long lasting it is.