Who is doing all the installs?

[sambotc]

Thats still a 12% return at 16p and under 10 year payback

or 11% and 13p and 10 year payback

Plus hopefully the prices coming down will open up a bit more of a margin for the installers once/if the uptake increases.

so it is perfectly viable long term and more affordable to the majority (and not just the retired lot who won't even be around in 25years!)

It's persuading the customer it's a safe place to put their money thats the hard part. Maybe everybody should be slightly more upbeat about it on the public forums as well as it doesn't help raising confidence! (not being funny)

 

[timo1]

I thought solar was no longer worth it (not really knowing anything about the industry) until it was explained to me that the investment is still the same i.e initially a 4kw system 10 - 12k to fit, now the same system can cost you half as much which makes your return more or less the same. May seem overly simplistic but would convince me. I had no idea that there was a 25yr guarantee on some panels - I still think there is a lot to offer a customer.

 

[sedgy34]

Thats still a 12% return at 16p and under 10 year payback

or 11% and 13p and 10 year payback

Plus hopefully the prices coming down will open up a bit more of a margin for the installers once/if the uptake increases.

so it is perfectly viable long term and more affordable to the majority (and not just the retired lot who won't even be around in 25years!)

It's persuading the customer it's a safe place to put their money thats the hard part. Maybe everybody should be slightly more upbeat about it on the public forums as well as it doesn't help raising confidence! (not being funny)

its the 10 yr payback thats the killer now

 

[moggy1968]

no reason why it shoiuld be though. 10 years is reasonable. It's the Governments stated payback times I'm dreading!!
Also I don't know how long the industry can support these prices, a number of manufacturers have gone under recently. I know the market is bigger than just the UK but the manufacturers seem to be discounting themselves to death (except the chinese maybe!!)

 

[sedgy34]

you try telling a potential customer that

 

[sambotc]

Any less than 10 years and it attracts the greedy investors etc who will manipulate the market again and cause another crash in FIT payments. The deployment rate has to be positive but steady for it to work for the smaller firms to earn a living.

 

[snowhead]

Anyone remember Stone Cladding??
Seemed a good idea to a lot of people at the time.

 

[sambotc]

as for the manufacturers going bust, that's the boom and bust we were trying to avoid I guess? To many trying to get rich quick taking big risks for big returns. How many manufacturers make LCD t.v's? Far less than their are PV panel suppliers, yet nearly every home has at least 1 LCD t.v in these days?

 

[finchy]

It's madness trying to get the message out to customers:

a- its half the price than a year ago
b-its half the fit rate (bar a couple pence)
therfore the same return if not better as your not tying up so much cash !!

Our market should have increased ....

We need some positive headlines from the govnt supporting it!

Im lucky that we are a diverse business but I certainly would be in trouble if this was my sole business. (Everyone needs windows ... Only joking ..)

 

[SolarCity]

To be totally honest, I don't think prices are half of what they were a year ago. The reason that it is still viable despite the halving of the FIT is that electricity prices are still the same. This, however, doesn't help rent-a-roof firms. Whichever way you look at it, the returns for these firms aren't what they were a few months ago.

The fact that they ARE still viable means that customers just haven't got the message.

 

[SRE]

We need a six month settling in period to re-build business and customer awareness. Our sole business is solar and we're just about getting through because we were very careful last year, but another cut will be devastating and we're expecting to be very quiet through the winter anyway because there's no real incentive to get anything installed when the generation is so low. So the new business model is really about capitalising on 8 months a year when solar is preceived to be viable. A cut delayed until just before Christmas would allow us to generate enough funds to see us over the winter - otherwise it's curtains for us!

 

[FB.]

As a professional investor, my analysis says that 4kW for £7400 is "worth", to me, RPI+4% per year.
So about 7-8% if inflation remains around the Bank's target of 3-4%. Proportionately more if inflation turns out to be higher.

But bickering over the level of returns put to one side: solar is still a good investment which, on a risk/return-adjusted basis, beats just about anything else available at the moment (as I stated yesterday on another topic).

A relative of mine has recently received a similar quote for £7-something for 4kWp, and their illustration claims about 12% return. I regard it as more like RPI+3%; about 6-7% annually if inflation averages 3-4%.

 

[FB.]

For what it's worth, I suspect the significant upfront cash outlay, which people can't get back, is also a deterrent to many who might like solar, but worry that they might need their rainy-day money for an emergency in these tough times.
With solar, the really big returns are back-end-loaded after many years of inflation have raised the FiT and bill savings.

So it does rather favour the well-off, or the rent-a-roofers.

 

[FB.]

a- its half the price than a year ago
b-its half the fit rate (bar a couple pence)

Actually, it's slightly better than that :wink_smile::

a - half the price
b - half the FiT rate
c - same bill savings

 

[SRE]

Your RPI + 3-4% is interesting the best investment linked to RPI I can get at the minute is 0.5% tied up for 5 years. Solar wins hands down.