It could be reasonably argued though that for a CU change only no load is being added....and if it's been running for the last 20 years on the existing tails without melting whats going to change?....that would be a reasonable assumption without any calculation.
Yes it could, but that wouldn't be good practice. Anyone who carries out a CU change assumes responsibility for the work involved in doing so, and must be able to demonstrate why they have done something or why they have not done something.
"it's been OK for the last 20 years." is the sort of statement that a customer might make to query work required. It's not the sort of statement that a trade professional should make to justify cable selection/re-use.
If you can't back up a technical descision with facts and figures it's just a guess. If guessing is OK why would anyone need an electrician?