FIT Announcement expected tomorrow (Thursday)

[Gavin A]

Sounds to me like clutching at straws desperately trying to find a glimmer of good news.

The benefit's very marginal. The export rate effectively has to be halved to account for the 50% deemed export, doesn't it? So the true figures are:

New: 16p + 2.25p = 18.25p
Old: 16.5p + 1.6p = 18.1p

I'm not particularly posting good or bad news, just trying to give an accurate picture of the situation, which is that for the 1st 20 years of the installation the return will actually be slightly higher than if they'd used the 16.5p FIT + 3.2p export rates - it's certainly not worse than expected, which many might think at first glance.

The customer will barely notice the difference but reducing the duration from 25 years to 20 will typically cost maybe 500-700 per year in today's money for years 21-25.

I honestly don't see this being a significant issue for most of our customers. For most it's the initial rate of return and payback time that are most important IME, with a lot of comments along the lines of 'I doubt I'll live that long' etc when it comes to the total 25 year figures.

I may be wrong, but I do see this reduction to 20 year FITs as being the least worst option when it comes to controlling the total costs of the FIT scheme, and it puts PV in line with most other technologies.

 

[JulianC]

Time to buy myself a stetson :cowboy: and some big scissors, for all those corners I'm going to have to cut to win the race to the bottom. Screw REAL, screw structural surveys, screw insurance backed warranties, screw insurance - it's all dead money. Buy cheap far-eastern tat and throw it in quickly. Sell the Stihl 'cos we won't be notching tiles anymore - takes too long. Different roof aspects? Tough, you're getting a single MPP tracker like it or not. Discount for cash? - no problem mate. You ain't seen me right. Slate roof? No problem sir, I have just the hanger bolt for that. Except it won't happen. Damn my moral standards.

And so it begins, boom and bust on 3 monthly cycles - for the first few months at least, until the customers run out as the gap between PV and ISA shrinks. Rising fuel costs won't make the slightest bit of difference to the majority I fear. The only incentive to buy PV now will be because it will be a bit sh***er if you buy it next month. And if people didn't buy at 43p and aren't buying at 21p I'm not so sure they'll be beating down the doors at 16p.

Local rag dropped through the door this morning and now even the local furniture superstore is advertising PV. Sod it, I'm better than this, I'm off to hand my CV in at Maccy D's. Solar PV UK died last year.

 

[babba]

O what a load of Feed-in Tariff Update - Latest DECC News

 

[Gavin A]

16p 1st August and then Three Monthly with 2 months notice August November, February. May based on installations

I'm not liking the timing of that winter cuts schedule. We're going to have a rush at the peak of winter at the end of January.

Working to DECC's convenient schedule instead of any sort of schedule that matches up with this being an industry that's hugely dependent on the weather.

 

[PVKitsDirect]

At the new rate a £XXXX 4kW install can pay back in 6.14 years, so not too bad.

I'm trying to be optimistic, but feel free to shoot me down.

Costs removed by PV Kits Direct

 

[solarsavings]

I'm not liking the timing of that winter cuts schedule. We're going to have a rush at the peak of winter at the end of January.

Gotta love your optimism Gavin:joker:

 

[SRE]

At the new rate a £--- 4kW install can pay back in xyears, so not too bad.

I'm trying to be optimistic, but feel free to shoot me down.

I don't have a stetson yet so I can't install at those rates!

 

[The Solar King]

Its not ideal, but workable. At a domestic level 100MW means 10-11,000 installs a month without digression. April saw only 17MW of installations. What is not clear is what period a November 2012 digression is based on. It will be a little unfair if it is based on any rush in June/July before the new scheme comes in and people are racing for a deadline at 21p/25 years.

Things look better in the 10-50k size where the rate of return is higher.

On the subject of inverters, I have been offered a Tiwanese 4k transformerless inverter for under £600.00. However I won't be fitting it as there is no built in monitoring and there are increased BOS costs. There is also install time V's purchase cost issue. Would rather pay substantially more for a unit that has everything built in and offers added value to the customer.

 

[SRE]

I'm not liking the timing of that winter cuts schedule. We're going to have a rush at the peak of winter at the end of January.

Working to DECC's convenient schedule instead of any sort of schedule that matches up with this being an industry that's hugely dependent on the weather.

If you realy think about it - there's likely to be a rush now until end of July = cut in November. Still plenty of summer to get jobs in August, September and possibly even October = cut in February, which won't take into account that cliff edge drop off in Nov. Kick starting the industry in March/April next year is going to be very, very tricky!

 

[PVKitsDirect]

We think that by the time this cut comes in, you will be able to buy a 4kW kit from us for £XXXX (that is our aim) and with a £XXXX install, the client can get a payback of 6 years dead.

Back to inverters, I went to a trade show in China last week and found what looks to be a good 4kW, dual tracker inverter that will sell to trade for under £---. It's G83 approved, but is not yet in PV*Sol for comparison purposes, but will be soon.

Costs removed by PV Kits Direct

 

[PVKitsDirect]

I don't have a stetson yet so I can't install at those rates!

The big boys are already doing it at those rates.

 

[TedM]

Is there just a little hint of irony that the DECC press release is titled : "Certainty for Solar"?

 

[SRE]

The big boys are already doing it at those rates.

and my Stetson requirement still stands.

My customers can come and knock on my door any time of the day or night. As a small installer it's impossible to work on a stack em high sell em cheap business model. Employees don't have the same vested interest in making sure the job is A1 as the installation without roof kit round the corner from me is testament to. No doubt the customer thinks they have a very neat installation!

It also doesn't help us (and I do recognise that you're trying to help ) when you advertise cost prices on a public forum. My customers don't have a clue what my overheads are, kit prices are just the start.

Cutting corners, promoting unsustainable prices just encourages Barking to think installation costs are too high. I wish, I wish, I wish I could work a normal 40 - 50 hour week. If my costs were based on the hours I work I'd be loads more expensive instead of working for minimum wage.

 

[Gavin A]

they missed 2 letters off the front of that title.

 

[PVKitsDirect]

Sorry - I'll go back and edit the costs out.

Just trying to stay positive - not by promoting lower working standards, by driving kit costs down; which, believe me, we are doing.