Solar instal in Blackpool - lots of questions

[moggy1968]

Now for the supportive maths why you are wrong for this particular example !

Assume an investment of £ 5,000 in comparison in an ISA paying each year 2.25% and a PV system giving an annual return of 2,500 kwhrs against an household useage of 6,000kwhrs @ 12p/kwh no standing charge with full useage of all electric generated with monies paid for 50% export.

The Invester stays at the property 20yrs and useage and generation remains static.

PV calculation;
Assuming no electrical bill saving - system will take ~12.5yrs to pay back alone

Balance of investment at 12.5yrs - NIL !!!!!!

Assume an additional electrical saving on utility bill of £ 200 p/a, add this to fit tarrif revenue, system then will take ~8.3yrs to pay back

Owner of property still has NIL balance and hasnt gained any profit whatsoever at this stage.

Assuming again 2% RPI on tarrif - after 20yrs - system will be in profit by ~ £ 8,800, assuming nothing has broken or had to be replaced ( panel or inverter wise ).

ISA Investment calculation;

£ 5,000 @ 2.25% will yield £ 1,018.63 interest profit after 8.3yrs
Invester still retains the initial investment of £ 5,000
Balance @ 8.3yrs = £ ~6,018.63

£ 5,000 @ 2.25% will yield £ 1,591.07 interest profit after 12.5yrs
Invester still retains the initial investment of £ 5,000
Balance @ 12.5yrs = £ ~ 6,591.07


AT 20yr position !
£ 5,000 @ 2.25% will yield £ 1,802.55 interest profit after 20yrs
Invester still retains the initial investment of £ 5,000
Balance @ 20yrs = £ ~ 7,802.55

RPI of 2% is very unlikely over the next 20 years
you have also failed to factor in fuel inflation. electricity prices have risen over 20% in the last 2 years.
If I put your pricing into a SAP based calculator with 3% RPI and just 5% fuel inflation the total income from PV after 20Years is £15243 which leaves your ISSA a long way behind.
this is based on SAP, all our installations perform 20-30%above SAP.
I also have accountants as customers and they tell me what I already know, PV is a no brainer.
My parents had it put in because their pension investments were only gaining 6%. They can't touch that capital because it provides their income, so why not stick it on the roof and gain 30% instead (they were on the 43p tariff and somehow managed to get a good deal on their installation!!!)

oh, and also the value of an ISSA can go up as well as down, PV tariffs are guaranteed.

Sorry chap, your figures just don't stand up to even basic scrutiny.

 

[danesol]

RPI of 2% is very unlikely over the next 20 years
you have also failed to factor in fuel inflation. electricity prices have risen over 20% in the last 2 years.
If I put your pricing into a SAP based calculator with 3% RPI and just 5% fuel inflation the total income from PV after 20Years is £15243 which leaves your ISSA a long way behind.
this is based on SAP, all our installations perform 20-30%above SAP.
I also have accountants as customers and they tell me what I already know, PV is a no brainer.
My parents had it put in because their pension investments were only gaining 6%. They can't touch that capital because it provides their income, so why not stick it on the roof and gain 30% instead (they were on the 43p tariff and somehow managed to get a good deal on their installation!!!)

oh, and also the value of an ISSA can go up as well as down, PV tariffs are guaranteed.

Sorry chap, your figures just don't stand up to even basic scrutiny.

Firstly IMO RPI will be up and down from now on.... so using 2% is a good estimate, however in general I thought I was been really fair as not only did I not factor in what you mentioned but I didnt factor in any repairs or panel/inverter replacements or the very fact that the panels will degrade over time ( my own panel from Sanyo will be only 80% efficient after x amount of yrs )

Before I go on to enlarge of my calculations, I will say this.........

If the OP has only 5K - its really debatable if its really worth it !

However, if the OP has say 15K - he would be foolish not to put 5K of bling on his roof as he could only invest two lots of ~£ 5K into 2 ISA's ( him & partner ) - whether fixed or variable, so he would maximise on his monies, especially if he was to have at his disposal over 10K to invest each year - this is why investments are so personal to the individual and why this always have to be seen on a case by case basis.

Now to tidy my approx calculations up as according to the Energy Saving Trust ( Solar Energy Calculator / Getting money back / Generating energy / Home (England) - Energy Saving Trust England ) it would appear I have been far too generous with my return for the £ 5K - 3kwhr PV installation, but the figs workout in the end very similar. :laugh3:

Accordingly to them and please try it - it suggests on a 3kw "due south ideal with no shading 30degree slope" system that you would only achieve ( random postcode used for example - PR2 2QB );

Prior to 30April ( generating 2,467kwhr p/a )
Income from FIT - £ 386
Money saved on electric bill - £ 94
Income from grid export - £ 56

TOTAL - £ 531.00 p/a
Total earned over the lifetime of the system - £ 10,510 therefore 5.5K profit over 20yrs

Post 1st May 2013
Income from FIT - £ 368
Money saved on electric bill - £ 94
Income from grid export - £ 56

TOTAL - £ 518.00 p/a
Total earned over the lifetime of the system - £ 10,262 therefore 5.2K profit over 20yrs

( Please note:- again, these "official figs from this website doesnt factor in any repairs or replacements whatsoever !! and states the following;
* The life of a PV system is estimated as 25 years, so these results allow for 20 years of FIT payments and 25 years of bill savings.)

And remember guys if this chap doesnt use a decent sloped mounted frame setup on the flat roof - these figures start to crumble very badly as the angle lowers to zero )

So if you use the official figs given by this official body the payback is even worse than I used !!!

Oh, with regards ISA's - yes they can go down and suppose they may do if the "Bank of England" has its way soon with negative interest rates been introduced.... however someone who looks after their money investments well, would I believe get the best deal for their lump sum year after year after year..........

QED

 

[Gavin A]

the energy saving trust calculator is a complete load of rubbbish as it assumes there will be no inflation and no energy price rises in the next 20 years, which is completely ridiculous, and tbh whoever did that at EST deserves the sack.

I can't be arsed to check, but it's probably also based on SAP 2009 which is around 5-10% below reality for most of the country as it uses 15% inverter losses when the reality now is more like 4-8% unless using really inefficient inverters, and -3% rated panels.

I'd tend to agree with you that if someone has £5k only savings then they shouldn't be spending it all on solar, but if they've got £5k spare on top of savings they need to tide them over in case of redundancy etc then for most people with a decent unshaded roof there is no better long term investment than solar PV, and with panel prices now rising again, and FIT cuts 10 weeks away, there is also no better time than now to invest in it.

 

[Ian-LS]

Just noticed the Energy Saving trust still have an assumed reduction of 3.5% on May 1st 2013. If they were a decent consumer advice website they would have changed this mid February or at on the date OFGEM released there FIT rates for May 1st - June 30th. In addition they haven't updated the May 1st - July 31st FIt period to May 1st to June 30th. No wonder consumers still think there is a FIT reduction on May 1st and the next reduction after that is August 1st 2013

 

[john999uk]

Just noticed the Energy Saving trust still have an assumed reduction of 3.5% on May 1st 2013. If they were a decent consumer advice website they would have changed this mid February or at on the date OFGEM released there FIT rates for May 1st - June 30th. In addition they haven't updated the May 1st - July 31st FIt period to May 1st to June 30th. No wonder consumers still think there is a FIT reduction on May 1st and the next reduction after that is August 1st 2013

That is confusing. When does it go down? Should I be rushing to get it installed before 1st May?

 

[Gavin A]

1st July

 

[moggy1968]

danesol, you can't even get the information on ISAs right for goodness sake!
The maximum that can be invested in an ISA is £11520
No one is suggesting someone spends their last £5000 of cash on solar and if you read the original posters points you will understand why he wants income on his roof rather than savings, because of his particular personal circumstances.
The Energy Saving trusts calculator is not an 'official' set of figures as you suggest. The official figures are the Governments SAP calculator I have quoted above.
You admit RPI will be up and down, but are still assuming an average of just 2% over the next 20 years, which would mean an increase of a minimal magnitude unprecedented in all of time, it's nonsence.
I'm at a loss to explain your arguments as you evidently have solar yourself and yet, asside from the ridiculous financial calculations you have made you refer to it disparagingly as bling, just bizzare.
Your figure for electricity savings is also absolute garbage. My parents 4 Kw system, which is mounted on a flat roof with a frame at just 15degrees is saving upto £40 a month. The 'Official' figures from SAP give a fuel saving more than double that you have quoted in the first year, and I would reiterate that all our customers are producing significantly in excess of SAP(in the south of england admittedly, although the one we have in York is also well above prediction).
Fuel savings will of course increase significantly as fuel prices continue to rise, as they inevitably will but you have chosen to ignore..
You've also failed to recognise the correct rates of FiTS
You clearly have no idea of the maintainance costs of solar, so I shall educate you, as you clearly need it. They are minimal, just a possible refurbishment of the inverter, which, in the case of the SMA inverter you have should be less than half the cost of a new inverter.

I don't know what axe your trying to grind but it really is time to shut up and listen because your just embarrassing yourself in front of a lot of experts in this field.

 

[MicraShed]

Im down the road from you in Preston and had £5k to invest - I intend stopping in my house for at least 10 years, possibly longer (ive been here 20 already!).

I have a 2.5kWp system and collectively since last July its put out 858kWh, (or £180) since September anything that would have been exported has been fed into the hot water tank thanks to the Immersun.

I will say that you DO need someone at home (which we have in our house) to make the most of the energy used during the day, we run things in tandem now, washer, dishwasher, hoover, iron, and so on. Bought a low wattage slow cooker and managed to get daily consumption off the Norweb Federation down at one point in August to just 2kW/day. You do need to think more about how you consume the 'lecky. But having panels and monitoring your use and generation does make you do that.

Production over winter was quite miserable though, and at my present generation its going to take longer than 7 years to payback my investment. Think about your use, research what other people are generating near you and then dcide whether its for you or not. If you are in the 'pool you might want to consider a small wind turbine (though beware BAe & B'pool air will almost automatically object to any planning application for a turbine).

 

[danesol]

danesol, you can't even get the information on ISSAs right for goodness sake!
The maximum that can be invested in an ISSA is £11520

No it isnt - thats including the share addition, which is opening another complete can of worms !!

Lets just keep it against the cash part of one person ISA which this year is exactly as follows;

""For the current 2012-13 tax year, the annual ISA allowance is £11,280, but only £5,640 of that may be used for a cash ISA. From April 6 2013, this will increase to £11,520, of which £5,760 can be put in a cash ISA. ""

 

[danesol]

You've also failed to recognise the correct rates of FiTS
You clearly have no idea of the maintainance costs of solar, so I shall educate you, as you clearly need it. They are minimal, just a possible refurbishment of the inverter, which, in the case of the SMA inverter you have should be less than half the cost of a new inverter.

For the record I consider myself fortunate as I choose to install PV in 2011 and therefore have the post DOS tarriff of 43p per kwh for 25yrs + RPI ( signed and sealed in concrete )!

I selected SMA - due to that very fact - that my replacement costs would be minimal as SMS have a low cost exchange scheme as you probably are aware at approx 300 euros?? so felt that was a no brainer also. I selected HITS for their small footprint whilst still providing high performance

Cost of replacement - 7yrs

What will we make therefore - A fortune !

So for me it was a no brainer - PV for us has been super so far ..... and will hopefully remain so for a further ~24yrs

Would I install PV now, knowing what I know now and having done the sums for us in relative to our heavy electric useage during the day - NO, i dont think so, as the risk is far higher and the overall return - very little indeed

I don't know what axe your trying to grind but it really is time to shut up and listen because your just embarrassing yourself in front of a lot of experts in this field.

I have no axe to grind at all, Im just stating from a personal POV and an educated one that you have to be very very careful with PV installation post DOS day, as there could be better financial options for you !!

You on the other hand are in the trade - so your motives are obvious !

At the end of the day - my rough calculations stack up for this particular thread, others maybe not.

 

[Ian-LS]

Ok its the weekend and I have time to provide some more realistic calculations......

Ok lets say the roof is 15 degrees, south facing and the location is Blackpool. Installed cost is £5,000

Ive inputted inverter and cable losses of 10 % which is on the conservative side as most 3 kW inverters are at least 94% efficient. Using 3 kWp, south facing and 15 degrees with 10 % losses PV GIS Comes out with year one ouput of 2,760 kWh.

Year one annual income and savings;

Feed in Tariff = 15.44p x 2,760 kWh = £426
Export = 50% of 2,760 kWh @ 4.5p/kWh = £62
In house savings with 30% used on site = 0.3 x 2,760 kWh x 13.4p = £111

Total Year One income and savings = £599.

Basic ROI 11.98 % and payback time of 8 years.

20 year income and Savings

£14,905

20 Year Profit

£9,905

Internal Rate of Return (IRR) = 9.91%

* RPI assumed to be 2.5% for FIT and export payments
* Electricity prices rise by 8% for first 5 years and then 5% for remaining 15 years
* Inverter replacement costs of £400 included in year 15

Put the £5000 into an ISA for 20 years at 3% interest you'll end up with £9,030. You'll need an interest rate of 3.5% to match the total profit from a PV system. I'm not saying my assumptions are right but a lot better than the energy saving trusts. I always when doing quotes make sure the finances make sense and offer a good return and are as accurate as possible. As i've said the finances still stack up even for low energy users and are a no brainer for high energy users.

 

[SRE]

Danesol - we're Pansonic Premium installers - but we don't install Panasonic at the minute because for most it doesn't make financial sense. I'd appreciate it - and I'm sure some of the others on this forum would too - if you would stop lumping us in with the shiny suit brigade! It's bad enough having to compete on the ground with the rubbish they spout, without someone tarring us all with the same brush on here. How on earth do you know that I'm out to sell solar no matter what? I've turned down quite a few jobs where I just haven't thought the customer hasn't understood the implications of what they are doing. If someone else wants to do that - it's up them but morally I can't do that.

Take a call today for example. Customer wants 4kwp, has had shiny suit round who has told him he can have it - house will meet D rating no problem. Panels are going on a garage roof - 7m wide (haven't been to measure yet but can you see it being 4m ridge to gutter next to a bungalow??) house can't have cavity wall, has a 7 year old gas back boiler and loft insulation. Can you see a problem??????? I'm going tomorrow to look properly but gut instinct tells me it's going to be too small to be viable and doubtful whether it will hit a D rating even with pv because it's a small system. Why am I going - because we're decent installers who hate to see people screwed over.

Give us a break! There are quite a few on here who do know what they are talking about and do provide really good advice. We're not all out to screw our customers. :frown2:

 

[Gavin A]

Put the £5000 into an ISA for 20 years at 3% interest you'll end up with £9,030. You'll need an interest rate of 3.5% to match the total profit from a PV system. I'm not saying my assumptions are right but a lot better than the energy saving trusts. I always when doing quotes make sure the finances make sense and offer a good return and are as accurate as possible. As i've said the finances still stack up even for low energy users and are a no brainer for high energy users.

It won't you know, as that £9030 includes the initial £5000 investment, whereas including the original investment you'd have £14,905 from the solar.

You'd need around 5.7% compound interest rates on your ISA before you hit those sort of 20 year returns, but with solar you could also be reinvesting each year's incomes (as you are doing with compound interest rates on ISAs), in which case you'd then have a much bigger nest egg at the end of the 20 years, plus a working solar system probably generating something like 85-90% of it's original output, energy savings and hopefully export payments.

So with an ISA investment at 5.7% you need to not touch the income in order to generate the same levels of returns over 20 years, whereas with the solar you can spend your annual savings and income as you earn it and still have had a 20 year 9.9% rate of return - which is what the IRR figure is.

To compare like with like, for an ISA where you could get that return at the same time as spending the interest payments you'd need an interest rate of 9.7%, which is a lot higher than I've seen being offered anywhere.

 

[moggy1968]

well said Gavin, one of the many errors in Danesols calculations is he is taking out the profit from solar, and not from the ISA. If you removed the profits from the ISA every year I don't think the returns would look terribly good!

Any sensible investor knows you should try and use the full amount of your ISA allowance and that includes stocks and shares, not just cash.

If you were to invest just £500 a year from your PV output (a lot less than the actual income) into an ISA achieving the rather poor 2.5% a year suggested by Danesol back into the ISA then you would gain an additional income from your PV, according to my very rough back of a smoke packet calculations around £2500 extra income at the end of 20 years (your ISA would be worth about £12500 compared to the £10000 you have paid in)

It shows your financial naivity that you think 2.5% is a good investment on an ISA. That would mean that in 20 years your money will be worth less than it was when you paid it in, because as sure as eggs is eggs, RPI will be higher than 2.5% over 20 years. PV on the other hand, will keep pace with RPI.

It is also worth pointing out that one of the arguments against solar is that the money you have spent on it is gone, as though you had just thrown it away so it isn't factored in to calculations, but the evidence is that having PV on your roof does actually increase the value of your home.

incindently, my latest ISA, which includes stocks and shares, has gone up 11.5% in the 6 months I have had it, 17% last year and 15% annualised over the last 5 years, but I would still put PV on my roof rather than paying extra into this as PV is one of the best returning and safest invesments you can make.

 

[moggy1968]

No it isnt - thats including the share addition, which is opening another complete can of worms !!

Lets just keep it against the cash part of one person ISA which this year is exactly as follows;

""For the current 2012-13 tax year, the annual ISA allowance is £11,280, but only £5,640 of that may be used for a cash ISA. From April 6 2013, this will increase to £11,520, of which £5,760 can be put in a cash ISA. ""

yes, but thats not what you said.
you said

However, if the OP has say 15K - he would be foolish not to put 5K of bling on his roof as he could only invest two lots of ~£ 5K into 2 ISA's ( him & partner ) - whether fixed or variable, so he would maximise on his monies, especially if he was to have at his disposal over 10K to invest each year - this is why investments are so personal to the individual and why this always have to be seen on a case by case basis.

which is incorrect

you may well have got in when the rates were better, but the systems were also considerably more expensive, especially on Sanyo/panasonic. I would suggest your payback time is probably only 2-3 years better than someone installing a system now.
If they made use of the technologies now available for improving output (such as microinverters) and consumption use (such as immersun) then the figures will be even closer.
Yes I am an installer, but like all the ones who are arguing against you here (all experienced, respected and reputable installers) I am more interested in giving good honest advice than flogging systems, to the point that I have occasionally talked myself out of business.